NBA Playoffs: Round 1

Jeff-

Well the NBA regular season has finally come to a close and there were definitely some surprises throughout the year. So let’s go ahead and break down the first round of the playoffs.

Eastern Conference

Hawks (1) vs Nets (8)

All year I have thought that the Hawks were a fluke, but they get a lucky draw here avoiding the Celtics and the Pacers and they end up with the Nets.

While I believe the Hawks are overrated the Nets are still no match for them. I could see Brooklyn snagging 1 game in this series, most likely game 4 to push it to a 5th game.

The Nets just don’t have enough to hang with this Hawks team.

Result: Hawks in 5.

Cavaliers (2) vs Celtics (7)

This is the matchup I definitely didn’t want as a Celtics fan. Boston managed to win 2 games against Cleveland in the final few games of the season but Cleveland rested most of their key players in those 2 games.

The Celtics are an exciting young team with the likes of Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, and Kelly Olynyk so there will definitely be some entertaining moments in this series but the Celtics just don’t have enough yet.

Lebron will come out as a master facilitator in this series, while trying to get Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love comfortable in their first playoff action of their careers.

Result: Cavs in 4.

Bulls (3) vs Bucks (6)

I really don’t see the Bulls as a huge threat this year. They just have too much going on with this roster. Can Rose stay healthy and perform at a high level? Can Jimmy Butler be the key guy when it comes to crunch time in the playoffs? Can Pau continue his impressive season and carry this team the way LA hoped he would do for them?

With all the questions about the Bulls, it still isn’t enough to give the Bucks a chance in this series.

Since the trade for Michael Carter-Williams the Bucks are 11-18, that just isn’t good enough.

If Parker was healthy, I could see Milwaukee snagging a game, but without him, this team stands no chance.

Result: Bulls in 4.

Raptors (4) vs Wizards (5)

This should easily be the best series in the East during the 1st round. Coming into the season I was very high on the Wiz but they have definitely faltered as of late.

This a classic matchup of a high scoring offense (Toronto) vs a top 10 defense (Washington). So the question is, which will win out?

The battle of John Wall vs Kyle Lowry will be a very entertaining side piece to the series. While Lowry is a very good PG I have to give the edge to John Wall here. He has had a phenomenal season and is finally putting it all together.

While Beal seems to be rounding into form, I think DeRozan has the slight edge in their matchup. Derozan has averaged 25 and 5 in the month of April and seems poised to have a huge performance in round 1.

The true difference maker in this series to me is Paul Pierce. Yes he is old, and isn’t the elite player he once was, but he has championship pedigree and still knows how to get it done when the bright lights are on. It also helps that he has had an “old man game” since his days in Kansas. I think he will abuse Terrence Ross in this series and average an impressive 18 ppg.

This is a very tough one for me and I actually changed my mind about 3 times just while writing this article.

Result: Wizards in 7.

Western Conference

Warriors (1) vs Pelicans (8)

This is the only series in the West in the 1st round that is pretty easy to pick.

Anthony Davis can’t do it on his own, but sadly he has to. There isn’t much analysis to this series. Steph Curry will be Steph Curry, Klay Thompson will be Klay Thompson

I can’t call this one a sweep though. I predict Anthony Davis going off for 40 and 15 in 1 game to grab a win.

Overall I think the Warriors win by an average of about 15 ppg.

Result: Warriors in 5.

Rockets (2) vs Mavericks (7)

This is going to be a monster series. James Harden is absolutely locked in this season, while the Mavs seem to just get things done.

The Rockets have 7 players averaging at least 11.5 ppg, while the Mavs only have 4. Also, one of those guys, Parsons, may not be ready to play. If Parsons doesn’t play, this series could be over pretty quickly. However, if he is back and ready to go this will be a very good series.

We have good matchups with Harden vs Ellis, Dwight vs Tyson, and Parsons vs his replacement Ariza.

Rondo always seems to shine brightest when on the big stage, but Dallas Rondo just seems like a different guy so I don’t know what to expect from him.

Win or lose this series will wear down James Harden as he attempts to carry this team for a 7 game series against a very tough opponent.

Result: Rockets in 7.

Clippers (3) vs Spurs (6)

The Clippers can’t be happy about drawing the Spurs in round 1. This was supposed to be the year the Clippers made a deep run. Meanwhile, every year the Spurs are “too old” and “done”.

Many people have the Spurs winning this series, having lost only 2 games in the last month of the NBA season.

However, I still believe in Doc Rivers and the Clippers. It won’t be easy, but they can definitely pull this one out.

Chris Paul has to be motivated by all the Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook best PG argument. Now is his time to remind everybody who the real best point in the league is.

Down low you have some excellent bigs with DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin, and Tim Duncan. Blake Griffin had a very impressive season and DeAndre Jordan was a monster averaging 15 boards per game. On the other side you have Old Faithful, the Big Fundamental. However, I gotta give the advantage to the Clippers on this one.

The real question here is which Kawhi Leonard is going to show up? The aggressive, beast from last years finals, or the passive, tends to disappear Leonard that can show himself from time to time.

The Spurs seem to make a deep run just about every year regardless of what the “experts” say about them, but I think this is the year we see an early exit from them. The Clippers have only lost once since March 17th and seem to be on a roll.

Result: Clippers in 6.

Trail Blazers (4) vs Grizzlies (5)

This is one of those weird cases where the 5 seed has home court advantage over the 4 seed. How much of a difference will that make in this series though?

If the Blazers still had Wes Matthews I would say they win this series 9 out of 10 times. Without him, it looks like they will be facing an uphill battle.

Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge are both phenomenal players but will they be enough to overcome the Grizz?

Memphis is one of those teams that doesn’t blow you away with great offensive performances, but they are tough and grind out wins with hard nosed defense and a 1-2 punch of Randolph and Gasol down low.

The addition of former Celtic Jeff Green gives them that scoring threat on the wing that they have missed in years past.

Lillard and Aldridge will obviously do what they need to do in this series but i’m not sure they have enough around them to win this series. If they want any chance they are going to need Afflalo, Lopez, and Batum to play out of their minds.

This is tough for me because I really like Portland and i’m not a huge fan of Memphis so my heart is telling me one thing but my gut is telling me another.

Result: Grizzlies in 7.

Clayton-

The playoffs are so difficult to predict for me, it is a mini march madness. Who knows how people will play and which coach will help a team or prevent them from playing to their potential? let’s get to it.

Eastern Conference

Hawks (1) vs Nets (8)

I know you have been down on the Hawks because you think they are a fluke. I believe if they were healthy and not about to have distractions they would easily be in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The night Chris Copeland of the Pacers got stabbed it hurt two franchises. The Pacers and the Hawks. Pero Antic got arrested and some diplomatic legal issues have arisen from that, and Thabo Sefolosha broke his ankle due to his claims of the police being too forceful. Though Thabo is no star, that injury will hurt and the whole distraction will be a huge hinderance.

The Hawks also have an injury to Paul Millsap, which can not be understated. This Hawks squad is definitely limping into the playoffs.

The Nets are unlikely to have much of a chance, but actually seem to have gotten the Hawks in a better way than one might think. By getting into the playoffs, they got a worse draft pick. The Hawks can switch them picks due to the disastrous Joe Johnson trade… Take that Atlanta.

Brook Lopez has been great the last two months, likely leading him to opt out this offseason, but the Nets will need huge performances from Deron Williams and Joe Johnson.

Result: Hawks in 4.

Cavaliers (2) vs Celtics (7)

The Celtics were supposed to be in the running for a Top 5 pick going into this season and maybe even a Top 3 pick after trading Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green. Well that didn’t actually work out.

Brad Stevens should get serious consideration for coach of the year. This Celtics squad is a bunch of young players and role players. Yet they had the the second best record in the east since February 2nd (24-12).

The Cavs? Well they are the best team in the east since then at 22-10. No real analysis is needed for this one. Maybe the Celtics win a game due to Brad Stevens being an amazing coach, but doubtful.

Result: Cavs in 4.

Bulls (3) vs Bucks (6)

People are making the Bulls out to be a real threat to the Cavs… I doubt that. They have 4 great big men, but Jimmy Butler can’t do it on his own at the wing. Derrick Rose’s injury is detrimental and definitely harmful to this series. Will he be able to chase this crazy athletic Bucks team around all game? Might be another knee injury waiting to happen.

Tom Thibodeau may be a Top 5 coach, but the way he runs his players to the ground is starting to get to me as a fan of basketball. No wonder they falter as the playoffs come along..

I love this Bucks team. Long, athletic, and loads of potential. The Greek Freak is going to have a huge game sometime in this series and I think they pull one out.

Jason Kidd has proven he is a very good coach, bringing this young team to the playoffs despite expectations of a high lottery pick again. They are clearly ahead of schedule and might come back down to earth a bit next year, but let’s worry about that later

Result: Bulls in 5.

Raptors (4) vs Wizards (5)

Raptors won this season series 3 games to 0. Now that really doesn’t mean anything right now, their last head to head was in February, but I don’t think that should be forgotten.

So much could be said about these two squads. They match up pretty well, but it comes down to the coaches in my opinion. Dwane Casey is not really a great coach, but he has one distinct advantage… He is not Randy Wittman.

Wittman should be fired regardless if they win this series or not. The Wizards are only 12-10 since the start of March, with 2 losses to Brooklyn, 2 losses to Indiana, a loss to Sacramento and a loss to Denver

12-10 is adequate, but Wittman will likely screw this up for them.

Result: Raptors in 6.

Western Conference

Warriors (1) vs Pelicans (8)

I really want to agree with Jeff and say that Anthony Davis will win a game for the Pelicans, but the Warriors have just so much depth that I have a hard time seeing it.

According to Tom Haberstroh, when Davis is on the floor versus the Warriors this season, it is 171-167 in the Warriors favor. That helps the case for at least a single win, but Davis can’t play all 48 each game, not to mention Monty Williams is another awful coach.

Jeff made the case easy.

Result: Warriors in 4

Rockets (2) vs Mavericks (7)

Let me get this out of the way, Harden has been great this year, but he is not the MVP. Now with that out of the way, let’s get to it.

Harden is apparently a superhero because he can’t get tired and plays at such a high level all the time. But he can’t play all 5 positions.

Dwight missed so much time this year and I have a hard time trusting that balky knee of his. Donatas Motiejunas is out for the playoffs because of a back injury. Patrick Beverley is out for the playoffs because of wrist surgery. Kostas Papanikolaou has been awful since about January and he has a hurt ankle. Terrence Jones only played 33 games this year. And oh… can you really trust Josh Smith?

Dallas has been absolutely dreadful since trading for Rondo, but I am giving them a good chance here. Tell Rondo to prove himself as a defender and guard Harden and see what happens.

Rockets have the 3-1 season advantage, but the Mavs won the most recent. Despite Parsons having a sore knee, I still give the Mavs the edge. All the injuries to the Rockets will definitely hurt here in the playoffs. Guess you can call this my upset alert.

Result: Mavericks in 7

Clippers (3) vs Spurs (6)

Old and aging versus the younger and supremely athletic. Chris Paul is playing at an MVP level as usual and DeAndre Jordan has played his way to a likely max contract. All the advantages seem to point towards the Clippers.

There are five issues I have with assuming the Clippers win.

1. Kawhi Leonard. Leonard has been a monster the last two and a half months. Ever since he got healthy he is back to last year’s form. Post All-Star break, he has a slash line of 52/36/80 while averaging 19 points per game, nearly 7 rebounds a game and 2.6 steals a game. In his last 10 games he is shooting over 57% from the field. He has been so good defensively, especially after the break, despite missing time this year, he could win the Defensive Player of the Year. Leonard is back, no questions.

2. Popovich in my opinion is still the superior coach over Rivers.

3. They have the 7th best offense and the 3rd best defense.

4. The Clippers are so easily messed with that it is hilarious. bully them on the court even a little and they crumble. If they aren’t allowed to be “Lob City,” they whine and cry. Paul, Blake Griffin and Doc are some of the biggest cryers in the league and the refs are seeing through this now.

5. Did I mention Kawhi?

Result:Spurs in 6.

Trail Blazers (4) vs Grizzlies (5)

The Grizzlies appeared to be on the way to a Top 2 seed. Then after trading for Jeff Green, everything got thrown out of whack. It was not necessarily Green performing poorly, though he wasn’t great, it just seemed to throw off the chemistry.

The Blazers have the injury blues. Wes Matthews’ achilles rupture is devastating. Arron Afflalo has been okay, but he is no Matthews. I do not agree with Jeff though that with Matthews this series would be over. The Grizzlies swept the season series 4-0 and only had one game without Wes Matthews, the March 21st game. Two of the Three games with Matthews were double digit losses…

Honestly, I wish the Grizzlies got the Clippers. This series will have a couple exciting moments, probably thanks to Damian Lillard scoring after letting his man score since he has no clue what defense is, but will it be truly entertaining?  I don’t know.

These are two teams are good defensively overall, but will LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez be able to hold the line after Lillard’s man slashes inside? Will Mike Conley’s foot let him play to his level or will it continue to make him suck? Will Batum continue to be a non-factor? So many questions and not many good answers.

Result: Grizzlies in 6