Clayton -
So Jeff we took a bit of a hiatus due to me having you school and your anniversary, but something floating around that caught my eye. I have been reading more and more articles saying the New York Knicks may have interest in trading their top pick (no. 1 overall is highly possible).
Jeff! SAY IT AIN’T SO! This is so wrong for Phil Jackson and his Knicks on so many levels. I’ll get to the possibilities of their draft pick later, but right now tell me what you think about this idiocy (or not) and let’s see if we can discuss any possible deals that could make this worth it.
We, well at least I do, prefer the idea of building through young guys with sporadic valuable veterans to help build a contender. This is totally not the idea. They do not have many assets, really only this pick, and will it really bring a big enough return?
Jeff -
See here is the problem… The Knicks have multiple needs, which in theory would mean you give up your biggest asset (their 1st round pick) to position yourself to address multiple needs. The issue is trading that first round pick won’t solve enough needs to justify trading it.
Now if there were other expendable pieces the Knicks had that could also help round out their roster, I would say you pull the trigger and make multiple moves and do a roster overhaul. However outside of that pick they don’t have enough to make much of a difference. Their best bet is to take the long route and build through the draft.
The main issue with that is you have an aging star in Carmelo Anthony that you need to capitalize on right now. So now the issue becomes do you torture your superstar player and risk him demanding a trade or do you auction off your future for a chance to get a little bit better now (still not contender worthy though)
Clayton -
I just don’t get it. They have a chance of drafting a possible franchise cornerstone on a cost controlled contract, and injects the youth needed for this team. Everything they have done since the 90s has been moronic. They need to realize that just because they are a big market team, does not mean they should throw money away and not draft smartly.
Look at the teams that are good and young right now. Golden State. Atlanta, Oklahoma City (has had an injury riddled season but their stars are all draft picks), Chicago, and Milwaukee. Even rising young teams that are a few years away like Utah, Minnesota (heads up to Flip Saunders trading Kevin Love for apparent UberStar Andrew Wiggins even though they are awful this year), Phoenix could be thrown in there, even talented yet the bad Orlando Magic and possible Playoff bound Boston. Many of their top guys came from high picks or shrewd later picks that panned out.
Like we both said, the Knicks just do not have assets. One guy that is valuable is Carmelo, but no one is taking ‘Melo (money and now knee surgery) and even then, why would you trade him? Plus he has a no trade clause and no way La-La (Melo’s wife), okays that.
Personally I would shop the hell out of ‘Melo. He is aging and do not rush a rebuild just to prove signing him was the good move.
One thing the Knicks do have is salary cap room. They will have only the salaries of Melo, Jose Calderon, Cleanthony Early, and Tim Hardaway Jr. Everyone else are non guaranteed deals or qualifying offers. That means they will have something like $32 million in salary obligations.
They truly need to find a partner for trading Calderon, bringing nearly seven and a half million in cap room. He is not a fit, costs too much and not doing anything for them in the short or long term.
On a side note: Phil Jackson says he was joking about screwing up the team but he has done a terrific job of doing just that. He traded Tyson Chandler for a big fat 0. Calderon is worthless to them, they seem even more down on Larkin than Dallas was and it has screwed them up. They should have been able to at least get a future pick or something. Then the J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert trade was pure idiocy. To dump Smith and his deal they gave away Shumpert.
PHIL! Buy out Smith and stretch provision his deal, and keep the good and young Shumpert. They got a 2019 second round pick from the Cavs which could be real low and three buyout candidates. COME ON PHIL! You are making a fool of yourself in not getting anything!
With the cap expected to be around $66 million next year, that leaves loads of room, (even more if they can unload Calderon). Not to mention the cap is about to explode. Rumors are that in 2016-2017, the cap will jump to more than $90 million and then 2017-2018 it could jump over $105 million.
Bottom line, thats nuts, but now the possibilities open up a bit on the free agent front. So lets get to some trade scenarios
It still would be stupid to trade this pick though. If I was in Phil Jackson’s shoes I am asking for the freaking moon. Picks, young controllable players and probably a star or high chance of it.
First before anything is discussed in terms of trades, the Knicks would have to make the pick due to league rules. After the selection, that is when this could all go down.
If we are going for picks and a controllable guy we can look to the Philadelphia 76ers. It looks like the 76ers could have three picks (their own pick which seems destined to be in the top 3, Miami’s pick that is top 10 protected, and Oklahoma City’s pick if it falls out of 19) secured already in the 1st round and not to mention a possible fourth in the Lakers pick if it drops past five.
Let us say they only get three of the four as the Lakers have a better chance than the others getting their picks back. That give the 76ers 3 first round picks and a few other valuable pieces to deal for the top pick.
With young guys such as Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, draft rights to Dario Saric, Jerami Grant, and very cheap 3 and D guy Robert Covington. They do not have a proven star yet, but a package of 2 of the picks (the top 3 pick and the Heat’s pick) and say Embiid could be enticing. Noel may be preferable since he is healthier, so may be more sure than Embiid is, but Embiid is the more talented player.
That is extremely valuable. Two still high picks to fill needs, and a potential star in Embiid. Philly would get their high pick which would likely be Karl Anthony Towns, a potential superstar who is healthy, and the Knicks would get more assets and a better chance at filling holes.
That sadly, is not the route likely to be taken. Talk of this seems to circulate around an established or developing young star.
Problem is, some of those guys may be more valuable than even the top pick. Minnesota isnt trading Wiggins for the top pick when they could have Wiggins and Co. with another top three pick themselves.
They are not getting The Greek Freak from Milwaukee or Klay Thompson from Golden State. The possibility of Klay leaving via trade is over after a spectacular year.
I see this as an opportunity of cashing in on a situation like I stated with Philly. I cannot see a young star or an established veteran star on a nearly done deal being dealt.
A few vets out there that could be available but are no where near worth giving up the top pick for are Deron Williams, Nikola Pekovic, and Kenneth Faried. All three have long deals that won't be expiring soon, but 2 of the three are injury prone (Williams and Pekovic), while Faried is an undersized 4 or 5 and I feel a product of energy and a great PR.
There are a few others who may be available, but they have shorter deals and still not worth the pick.
What do you think Jeff? Are there any players you could honestly see being available that is worth this kind of pick for the sake of argument? A multi-team deal would have to be configured right?
Jeff-
Personally I would like to see the Knicks keep their pick and draft either Towns or Willie Cauley-Stein (I don’t think Okafor is the right pick for this team) Now you might think WCS is not a #1 overall pick and frankly he isn’t but he has often been compared to Tyson Chandler, you know the guy the Knicks stupidly traded away.
I think if you pair a healthy Melo with either of those 2 bigs then you have a very good start to a team.
If they do however seek out a trade there are a few options out there but I don’t think they can find a realistic deal that gives equal value for the pick.
One thing that I would like to see as a Boston fan but I don’t think will is a deal that looks something like this:
New York sends their 2015 1st round pick and 2017 2nd round pick (via Houston) to Boston.
Boston sends their 2015 1st round pick, 2015 1st round pick (via Clippers) and Jared Sullinger.
Now I love Sullinger but I just don’t see him being a part of Ainge’s long term plans and if we can move him and get Towns or Okafor I would be satisfied with that.
Boston’s own pick they would be trading, is set to fall in the mid teens and the Clippers pick will be in the 20’s so adding Sullinger is almost a necessity to increase the value. If I read the statement correctly New York does not have a 1st round pick in 2016 so getting two 1st round picks this year should help soften the blow although I’m sure they would rather swap the Clippers pick for Boston’s 2016 1st rounder but I don’t see Ainge doing that.
The real trade I think they should look into is something you mentioned earlier, and that is looking to the 76ers for Nerlens Noel and picks.
Here’s what I think the Knicks should look to get:
New York sends their 2015 1st round pick and 2017 2nd round pick (via Houston) to Philly.
Philly sends Nerlens Noel and 2015 1st round pick (via Miami)
This is the ideal deal for the Knicks and one that I think would launch them into the playoffs next year.
Philly gets the presumed #1 overall pick plus a late pick in a few years as a piece. Philly has made some questionable decisions in the past few years and this would be right on par for them.
New York gets a stud in Nerlens Noel that could really take some weight off of Melo and they also get a mid 1st round draft pick to add another key piece for the future. I think this deal puts them in a much better position than the Boston deal, or any deal that they could make without bringing in another team.
Now they could really cash in by roping in another team but at this point there are so many possibilities for that and it’s hard to predict who would want to jump in so I don’t think we could really give an accurate estimation of what that would look like.
What you really have to ask yourself if you are Phil Jackson is this: Is a team centered around Carmelo Anthony and Karl Anthony-Towns better than a team with Melo, Nerlens Noel and a choice of either Montrezl Harrell, Devin Booker, or Trey Lyles? I personally think the answer to that is no.
Clayton -
Okafor not being the correct fit for this team if extremely interesting. Two months ago he was the clear cut favorite for nearly everyone despite his weaknesses.
Yet, I totally agree. Towns is the better player and fit. WCS is interesting, but as you said, not good enough to be the top pick. He could go as high as five or six though.
On a quick side note: Harrell is the least valuable of those other three listed in my opinion.
Looking at the top possible top five picks (Knicks, Wolves, Sixers, Lakers, and Magic), the best fit is Philadelphia.
If the Knick were to take him they would need a rim protecting 4. The Wolves would be interesting to play next to Gorgui Dieng, but that may not mesh and they are rumored to like Towns more. Philadelphia would have to trade Embiid or Noel (as we have discussed and will further discuss). The Lakers just drafted a 4 that is not really a rim protector in Julius Randle so Towns would fit better. Finally, the Magic have Vucevic who is already a poor defender and just gave him a healthy sized extension (that is not to say they would trade him).
The Boston deal in my opinion is weak. Their two first rounders this year will be mid or late so those are not of much value in a deal like this. Sullinger has value, but he would essentially be a cornerstone of the trade and to me he does not have that kind of value. Marcus Smart would have to be included as a substitute if I was Jackson, and I doubt Ainge would okay that.
I like Sully, but that deal is just too weak. We are talking Towns, Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay or even D’Angelo Russell, with Towns or Okafor being the favorite at the top spot. Sully to me is not a championship caliber starting 4 and those later picks, though valuable assets, are not worth it.
This would either have to be a three-team deal, which are nearly impossible to forecast so are pretty much just guesses, or the Philly deal.
Only problem I have with your Philly scenario is the pick back to New York. If we limit picks, the Knicks will want the third overall pick and Noel. Not Noel and the possible 15th. Philly would be getting No.1 and No.3 (their own pick) plus a future second rounder (we have seen what they can do with those, K.J. McDaniels and Jerami Grant) if it all fell how it is situated.
I guess it could happen, but Phil would be shredded after.
Some people have a low value set on picks, but that is definitely not the case for front offices or scouts. This pick has huge value.
At minimum it would have to be Noel, Miami and Oklahoma City’s pick. Even then, I am asking for Noel, Philly’s pick, and either one of the other two.
Some may say this is too much for picks, but when a guy like Timofey Mozgov fetched two first rounders, I say it is totally fair. Yes Mozgov has been more than worth it and has exceeded his play in Denver, but Mozgov is no Towns or Okafor.
I still say I would keep the pick due to the value of potential young superstars on controlled contracts, but if it were to secure Noel, another high first and a mid first, I would have a hard time not pulling the trigger.
Jeff-
Would you really expect me to create a Boston trade scenario where the Celtics didn’t come out extremely on top? I tried to hide my homer on that one, but just couldn’t manage it.
I don’t think Philly would agree to a trade for the #1 overall if they had to give up the #3. They would be giving up a top talent in Noel and only gaining 2 spots in the draft, which to me isn’t worth it.
There are way too many scenarios that can play out from now until draft day. Maybe the Knicks get a bad bounce on lottery night, maybe Phil Jackson out zens himself and screws this one up (which I think is very likely), maybe we see a draft day surprise ala Anthony Bennett that stuns the sporting world.
All I know is the Knicks have themselves in a weird situation where even doing everything right this offseason, might not be good enough.
Clayton -
Nice try on the Celtics trade, such a homer.
I understand what you are saying in terms of value, but no General Manager in their right mind will be giving up the top pick and not be getting that high pick as well.
I think this comes down to your evaluation of Noel. Is he just a defensive stalwart, or can he develop more of an offensive game? With Towns you would be receiving both of that, increasing the value and ability to give up Noel and the pick. Imagining Towns with a healthy Embiid is truly frightening.
This has plenty of time to play out as you said, and this could all be irrelevant by the time the draft comes. I think the Knicks will be rebuilding into the free agent frenzies of 2016 and even 2017, but this pick still has a lot riding on it and either has to be used to get a top guy or bring in huge assets.
Keep on losing and tank to win New York.
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