5 weeks ago the Falcons were in a great position with the 8th overall pick in Thursday’s NFL Draft. They had a clear cut #1 need of pass rushing, and there were 4 top pass rushers set to go in the first half of the draft. Fast forward to 1 day before the draft and what are we looking at? Two of those four players have hurt their stock so much that some experts are predicting they may not even go in round 1. This leaves the Falcons in a very bad position. A month ago you would look at their situation and say they are guaranteed to get 1 of the 4 top pass rushers. Now they will be lucky to land one and may have to reach for the 5th best prospect (Bud Dupree) about 12- 15 picks sooner than he should come off the board.
Let’s break this down for a second, Dante Fowler Jr is the consensus top pass rusher in this draft and is more than likely to go within the top 3 picks. He was never really an option for Atlanta at 8, but because of him being a lock, Atlanta was nearly guaranteed one of the 3 other top guys.
Vic Beasley barely edged out Shane Ray for the title of 2nd best pass rushing prospect in the draft. He was the guy that was going to do 1 of 2 things.. Either guarantee we get Shane Ray because he goes to a team in between us and whoever takes Fowler or he was going to be the guy that falls to us because another team viewed Ray as the better prospect. Either way he was a valuable player to the Falcons future.
Shane Ray was the guy that seemed like the most likely option for Atlanta. He was a premier pass rusher, who had a nagging toe injury which made him not worth taking over Fowler or Beasley but was too good to pass up at 8 if those 2 were already gone. Now through the draft process I fell in love with this kid. He seemed to do and say all the right things and I was praying we ended up with him.
Finally we have Randy Gregory, he was the 4th best prospect (at one point the best of the bunch and a possible Top 3 pick), that was still a premier pass rusher but had definite red flags with his inability to keep weight on and his shortcomings in certain points during the season. He was the security blanket for the Falcons in case the worst case scenario happened. He was the guy that was guaranteed to be there if the crazy situation of Fowler, Beasley, and Ray all going top 7 happened.
Here we are, the week of the draft and Randy Gregory has plummeted in the mock drafts due to his failed drug tests. After the news broke on Gregory most people pushed him to the later half of the draft. The Falcons were still in decent position with Ray still looking like a lock at the 8 spot. Then Monday morning Ray was pulled over for speeding and was found in possession of Marijuana. Now Marijuana isn’t something that should ruin someone's career, but the major red flag was the timing of this. 3 days before the biggest day of his life and he does this. Teams were willing to overlook the toe injury, but combine that with his horrible decision at the worst possible time, and it was just too much for teams to forget about. He too has pushed himself to the back of the first round or maybe even the second round (the Mark Dominik comment to Mike and Mike of Ray falling to the 4th round is ludicrous and laughable).
So, with 2 of the top 4 pass rushers not an option for the Falcons, we are left with a few options to still salvage the pick and build for the future.
Option 1: Trade up for Dante Fowler Jr.
Many teams within the top 5 have expressed interest in trading back into the draft to acquire more picks. The key teams to target would be Jacksonville at #3 and Washington at #5. Jacksonville has been the favorite team in most mock drafts to land Fowler Jr. but they have many needs and could look to add more picks to bolster their young roster. It’s unclear exactly what they would require to move back, but I would venture to guess it would be a swap of 1st round picks, a 3rd rounder this year, and maybe a 2nd rounder next year. Now that might be a bit steep to move up only 5 spots, but if Dan Quinn believes Fowler is the guy that I believe he can be I would say he is worth it.
Now Jacksonville has been rumored to be interested in Amari Cooper also (or if Mariota goes at #2 to whoever ends up picking there and the Jags take Williams) then Atlanta could look to move up to the 5th spot and swap with Washington. Washington would only be moving back 3 spots which would mean maybe swapping 1st rounders, a 3rd rounder and maybe a 5th rounder could the Falcons into that spot to take Fowler Jr.
Option 2: Hope Vic Beasley is available at #8
This one is a gamble but could work out given the many scenarios that could play out within the top 5. Most people believe Tennessee will take Williams at #2 and Jacksonville will take Fowler Jr at #3 which would almost guarantee that Beasley gets taken somewhere between 5 and 7.
However, say Tennessee (or a team trades up to the 2 spot) takes Marcus Mariotta (increasingly likely at this point), that would then cause Jacksonville to potentially take Leonard Williams, then leaving Fowler to be the pass rusher taken between 5 and 7, which results in Beasley potentially being there for the Falcons at #8.
Another scenario (one that I have predicted for a while) is Tennessee takes Leonard Williams at #2 and Jacksonville takes the leap and grabs the big play receiver needed to bring along Blake Bortles. That’s right Amari Cooper to the Jags, and it would be a beautiful fit. If this happens Fowler is now there once again for those 5-7 teams, leaving Beasley for Atlanta at #8.
A final, highly unlikely scenario, is Tennessee (or a team that trades up to #2) takes Mariotta AND Jacksonville grabs Amari Cooper. Now Leonard Williams is the guy that goes and Fowler possibly slides to Atlanta. Like I said, this one is highly unlikely but crazier things have happened and it would be foolish of me not to at least mention it.
Option 3: Reach for Dupree at #8 or trade back into the teens for Dupree
This is my least favorite of the options. I am not a big fan of Bud Dupree and I really think the Falcons would be making a mistake drafting him at #8. It would be a major reach in my opinion and simply wouldn’t satisfy anyone in the organization when just 2 weeks ago we all thought Shane Ray was our guy of the future. If the Falcons can guarantee they could still take Dupree in the teens and can grab a 3rd round pick to trade back I would say go for it if he is our only option, but if they trade back and he gets taken before they pick it would be a major failure and could mess up the entire draft for the franchise.
When it’s time for the Falcons to draft on Thursday night they still have a good chance of landing an impact pass rusher but they will need luck or the guts to pull the trigger. Plus, if things get too shaky there is always Todd Gurley sitting there, just kidding… kind of.
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