NFL Rookie Stats Leaders 2015 Part 2

We are so close to the beginning of the season and we are finally getting to see what rosters and depth charts will look like. A couple of weeks ago Jeff made his predictions, and now it is Clayton's turn. Some picks are the same, some different, with a surprise or two. Oh yeah, and added a stat to the QB's (here's a hint: I am not high on Winston, just his weapons are better).

As done with the NFL stat leaders piece, Clayton made the picks, while Jeff tries to explain the choices.

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Passing

Yards- Jameis WInston - TB - 3,100 yards (1st overall pick)

It’s basically a 2 man race at QB this year (unless you think Bryce Petty has a chance in NY) and frankly neither guy makes me feel good. Winston just has the better weapons which will ultimately make his transition to the NFL a bit smoother. He won’t come without his mistakes, but he should be able to put up 3,100 yards as long as Evans and Jackson stay healthy and the Bucs throw it enough which they should considering they will be trailing in most games.

Touchdowns- Jameis Winston - TB - 18 TD’s (1st overall pick)

With two receivers standing at 6’5” it’s safe to say there will be a lot of goal line fades for Winston which should give him a reasonable shot at beating out Mariota in the TD category as well. 18 is a fair estimate for Jameis in his rookie season.

Interceptions - Jameis Winston - TB - 27 Ints (1st overall pick)

Clayton doesn’t like Winston, and neither do I, but Clayton has said from day 1 he thinks Winston will put up some disgustingly bad INT numbers this year. I’m not sure if I see 27 happening but he could get the elusive more INT’s than TD’s honor this year.

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Rushing

Yards- Melvin Gordon - SD - 1,150 yards (15th overall pick)

I’m not big on Gordon (and I don’t think Clayton is either) but he will probably get the most touches of any rookie, depending on the health of Gurley down in STL. I have always thought Gordon was just another college back that benefited from a system and wouldn’t cut it in the NFL. I still believe that but he is going to a team where he can be the #1 back right out of the gate and should get plenty of touches. Although, I hate to admit it, I think 1,150 yards this season is very doable.

Touchdowns- Todd Gurley - STL - 8 TDs (10th overall pick)

My favorite player of the draft, the pride and joy of my Bulldogs, TODD GURLEY! I have not hidden my love for Gurley and I can’t help but think my endless talking about him for the last year straight might have impacted this decision just a little bit. Clayton still believes he won’t be back week 1, but I feel he could miss the first 3 games and still lead all rookies in any rushing category. This man is the future of running backs and will be a beast this year and for years to come.

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Receiving

Receptions- Amari Cooper - OAK  - 85 catches (4th overall pick)

Amari Cooper is THE GUY for David Carr in Oakland immediately and that should bode well for his stats this year. Cooper will get plenty of targets, it’s just a matter of how many he is able to haul in. He has great hands and exceptional route running skills, but for a rookie coming straight into the league to presumably be facing weekly double teams is a bit of a worry.

Yards- Amari Cooper - OAK - 1,300 yards (4th overall pick)

Cooper should put up huge numbers… however 1,300 yard would have put Cooper in the top 10 for yards last year and I think that is a bit much. As I previously stated I think Cooper is going to get a lot of looks, but he will also be getting a lot of attention from defenses. I think this will result in plenty of catches but a lot of situations where he will make the catch and be immediately brought down.

Touchdowns- DeVante Parker - MIA - 10 TD’s (14th overall pick)

Clayton and I both agree on this selection but he has Parker pulling down 1 more TD than I do. If Mike Wallace can get 10 TD’s in the Dolphins offense last year I see no reason why Parker can’t do the same thing (especially with Wallace now gone). Parker could be a hit or miss this season. I think he will either show up big time for Miami or flame out and be staring down a lot of criticism going into his second year.

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Defense

Tackles- Landon Collins - NYG - 110 tackles (33rd overall pick)

Not really sure how I feel about this pick by Clayton here. I like Landon Collins but not sure he will have this type of impact in his rookie year. I think Collins lands somewhere in the 70-80 tackle range for the Giants this year. I honestly was surprised to see this name pop up here for Clayton. No doubt Collins will get plenty of snaps, but I have seen him blow some easy coverages and being overly aggressive anticipating a run and leaving himself out of position.I think eventually Collins will be a solid pro player but he will definitely have some growing pains this year.

Sacks- Hau'oli Kikaha - NO -  9 sacks (44th overall pick)

This was definitely a shocker for me. He is definitely a pure pass rusher but I am not sure he will be on the field enough to reach this mark. He also has had some injuries in the past and that could factor into his production this year as well. With the departure of Junior Gallette the Saints definitely have a need to fill at pass rush but I am not sure Kikaha fills that void just yet. I see about 4 or 5 sacks being the mark here in his rookie season.

Interceptions- Marcus Peters - KC - 4 INT’s (18th overall pick)

Peters was my pick as well, but I was expecting this one from Clayton given his Chiefs fandom. Peters should get plenty of playtime to start the season and if he can prove himself early he can easily get 4 INT’s as he will be tested early and often. It helps that the Chiefs face Peyton and Rivers twice a year each as those two will definitely test the rookie and give him some chances to make a play.

NFL Rookie Stats Leaders This Upcoming Season

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We recently did a stat prediction  for the upcoming season, now we have decided to do a similar piece, but this time it’s all about the rookies of the NFL. Will we have any breakout stars lead the class, or will it be the top picks that dominate?

As done with the NFL stat leaders piece, Jeff picked the rookie leaders and Clayton explained why.

Passing

Yards- Jameis WInston - TB - 3,500 yards (1st overall pick)

This is dependent on your opinion between Winston and Mariota and their current weapons. For Winston it seems to be the fact that he has better current weapons around him. With Mike Evans (hoping he does not have a sophomore slump) being possibly one of the next great big receiver, his mentor Vincent Jackson and big tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Winston is surrounded by length, speed and playmaking abilities. My football worries for Winston revolve around the line, the running game and as Podcaster Will Reeve (find him on twitter at @WillReeveJr) has repeatedly said, his vision over the middle is not the best.

Touchdowns- Jameis Winston - TB - 22 TD’s (1st overall pick)

This leans toward Winston again. I do like some of Mariota’s weapons in the offense, but none of them are on the level of Winston’s three primary that I mentioned above at this time. Something not mentioned here is interceptions. I see Winston throwing at minimum 24 picks and gets close to 30.

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Rushing

Yards- Todd Gurley - STL - 1,100 yards (10th overall pick)

Gurley is by far the most talented back in this draft, and it is not even remotely close. My worries here is rushing Gurley back from his torn ACL. Personally and really even how we feel on this site, you build for the future, especially if you are in the Rams position. I would rather have Gurley for 10 years than a good season but due to rushing him back hurting his abilities for the long haul. Jeff has told me that the former Georgia Bulldog could be ready and fully healthy by the season opener. If that is the case, 1,100 yards may be on the lighter side. If Gurley is held out due to the injury, you could see Melvin Gordon here as he will likely be heavily worked (even though he was a massive overdraft by the Chargers).

Touchdowns- TJ Yeldon - JAX - 9 TD’s (36th overall pick)

Jacksonville was clearly higher on Yeldon on the former Crimson Tide than the rest of the league. I liked Yeldon a lot, but felt it was an overdraft. If the line has improved as our buddy Josh says (find Josh on twitter at @RedsoxJagsfan), then you could see Yeldon getting the opportunities to lead the Jags, especially given his draft spot. Yeldon will have to beat out the bigger Toby Gerhart (personally I hope Gerhart plays much better than he did last year as I have liked him since his Stanford days) who could get the majority of the red-zone carries since he is bigger, and the quick Denard Robinson.

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Receiving 

Receptions- Nelson Agholor - PHI - 85 catches (20th overall pick)

Personally I would have given all of these categories to Amari Cooper if he is healthy, but that is too easy. Agholor is in an interesting position since there is decent wide out talent on the Eagles, especially since they hold Jordan Matthews in such a high regard. Agholor has the talent to get near the amount Jeff predicted, but with Philly’s QB situation in a terrible spot (Bradford is never reaching that ceiling so many idiots projected for him, I called him a bust the second he was picked), it is up to them and the line protecting their feeble QB. Philly may be imagining Agholor to step in for the departed Jeremy Maclin, but that may have to wait till next year.

Yards- Amari Cooper - OAK - 1,200 yards (4th overall pick)

If Cooper can stay healthy and does not get hit with some kind of Raiders curse, he is going to ball. He is a true no. 1 type receiver and gives Derek Carr possibly the best receiver he will ever have the chance of throwing too. Cooper may not be a prototypical burner, but he is still fast (4.42 40 at the combine), is an insanely sharp route runner, and the athleticism is sneaky, but astounding. Though he may not be that burner, he has excellent separation skills, giving him the ability to find that hole to get open in. This is probably a good starting point if not actually a bit giving for Cooper, but I honestly would not be surprised if he had over 1,400 yards. Like I said above, we could see Cooper lead rookies in all of these stats.

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Touchdowns- DeVante Parker - MIA - 9 TD’s (14th overall pick)

In my opinion he should have been the second wide receiver picked in the draft after Cooper. The long, fast and explosive receiver has all the tools to be a great red zone option for Ryan Tannehill. He will have to fight with Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry and the declining Greg Jennings to get targets, but his size alone should give him an edge over the others when it comes time to get that fade in the back corner, as can be seen in the image above as Parker catches a pass over Brent Grimes. He was only credited for 3 drops last year so his reliability is great for the young QB. If healthy (he had a foot injury last year resulting in a surgery that could keep him out for a bit still), Parker could really shine for the Dolphins.

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Defense

Tackles- Eric Kendricks - MIN - 115 tackles (45th overall pick)

Kendricks should have gone 15-20 picks sooner and it was all luck for Minnesota that he slipped this far. He is a bit smaller than some would like at only six feet tall, but Kendricks is a tackling machine, posting 149 solo tackles last year for UCLA and winning the Butkus award. He may even be able to handle the inside with former UCLA teammate Anthony Barr and veteran Chad Greenway flanking him. This estimate may be much lower than his final numbers show. This could be in the area of 130+.

Sacks- Vic Beasley - ATL - 8.5 sacks (8th overall pick)

Jeff's love interest, I mean his proud piece from the draft has shown over the past two seasons at Clemson that you couldn't keep him out of the backfield posting in his last two years 25 sacks and 44.5 tackles for loss. That is crazy production. He may not have been the best talent (I liked Shane Ray and Randy Gregory better but they had major red flags), but he may have been the best fit along with being loaded with talent. It was a draftday daily double if you will. Beasley has some work to do in rounding out his game, but in new coach Dan Quinn's system, he will likely only be asked to rush the passer, a la Bruce Irvin in Seattle. It may take time for the young pass rusher to get into gear this season, but once you see the development come, Atlanta opponents may have to be game planning for him before the season's end.

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Interceptions- Marcus Peters - KC - 5 INT’s (18th overall pick)

Peters may not have been the first corner back drafted this year, but I would say he is the most talented. The main issue was his red flags, as he was suspended and eventually released by the University of Washington. Thankfully Reid and Dorsey acknowledged the talent and swooped him up. With Sean Smith suspended the first three games of the year due to a DUI, Peters has the opportunity to step in. Peters has competition for the spot, which will be discussed in a later piece, but he is the most talented of the options. He is gifted with great athleticism, the size and length that the modern NFL craves, coverage abilities (his fluidity is exceptional) and the ball skills to be dangerous. With the opportunity knocking and his gifts, expect Peters to have a season where he stands out on the field even as a rookie.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter at @Jeffkay1989

You can follow Clayton on Twitter at @19Yanks23

First Round NFL Mock Draft

What we decided to do here was have a little fun and pair together to create a First Round Mock Draft for tonight. What we did was go back and forth with Jeff selecting odd number picks and Clayton selecting even number picks. We are predicting what we think happens, not necessarily what we would like to see happen

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB - Jameis Winston - Florida State

This one is fairly easy to predict. The Bucs have been basically locked into Winston for quite some time now. Whether he is the franchise QB they believe him to be is debatable, fact is, in today’s NFL they are being pressured into taking this pick.

2. Tennessee Titans - QB - Marcus Mariota - Oregon

When Zach Mettenberger is presumed starting quarterback, you are in trouble. Mariota has his faults, specifically not much experience under center, but he has the tools and abilities that you look for in a franchise QB. There is tons of trade speculation around this pick so it could be someone else taking Mariota.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars - OLB - Dante Fowler Jr. - Florida

The Jags have a clear need for someone on the edge that can pressure the QB. Fowler Jr is the perfect fit for Gus Bradley’s defense. Leonard Williams is an interesting option if available, but I think Fowler just has too much to offer for the Jags for them to pass on him.

4. Oakland Raiders - WR - Amari Cooper - Alabama

Is Derek Carr the answer at quarterback for this floundering franchise? He certainly had his moments last year. The Raiders need weapons bottom line and they take the best receiver in the draft to give Carr a chance.

5. Washington Redskins - DE/DT - Leonard Williams -  USC

Pass rush is a big need for the Redskins, and if they see Williams there at 5 they won’t be able to turn in that card fast enough. Sure WR and OL are big needs, but if you have what most believe to be the best player in the draft sitting there at #5, you snatch him up without hesitation.

6. New York Jets - OLB - Vic Beasley - Clemson

The Jets have needed a great pass rusher for years, but got away without one due to Rex Ryan being a Wizard on defense. Todd Bowles is as well, but with signing corners in free agency, they can address the need for a sack artist here.

7. Chicago Bears - WR - Kevin White - West Virginia

The Bears have plenty of needs ahead of WR, but based on what is available this is the best option for them. This is their chance to make up for shipping out Brandon Marshall and salvage what is left of their offense. Leaving them to take a pass rusher in the 2nd round.

8. Atlanta Falcons - OLB - Shane Ray - Missouri

Everyone seems to be down on Ray due to the stupidity of being cited for weed, and maybe Dan Quinn is upset enough to pass by him too. If I am Thomas Dimitroff and Scott Pioli I tell Quinn to shut his mouth and coach this guy up. A special talent at a desperate need.

9. New York Giants - OG -  Brandon Scherff - Iowa

Similar to Winston at #1 overall, Scherff has basically been locked into this spot for weeks. The Giants severely need offensive line help and Scherff is the best prospect available. There is a chance Scherff gets snatched up before the Giants get to the podium but if he is there the Giants will take him.

10. St. Louis Rams - CB - Trae Waynes -  Michigan State

Cornerback may be the last piece of the puzzle for the Rams. I believe Marcus Peters is the best corner in the draft, but Waynes seems to be rated higher by most people. E.J. Gaines was a good find and the Rams have others, but with this kind of talent, they should finally shore up this spot on the field.

11. Minnesota Vikings - WR -  Devante Parker - Louisville

The Vikings desperately need a big time target for 2nd year QB Teddy Bridgewater. Patterson looked lackluster in 2014 and the chance to give their QB of the future a big time target is more important than anything in the 1st round.

12. Cleveland Browns - NT - Danny Shelton -  Washington

Their run defense was pathetic and that was even with big ole’ Phil Taylor. With Parker gone, this seems to be the best player for the Browns here, that’s if they even make this pick and don’t trade up or out.

13. New Orleans Saints - OLB - Bud Dupree -  Kentucky

The Saints need a WR but with the depth at that position they can wait to grab the big play guy later in the draft. The Saints need major help with pass rushing and Dupree is the best available prospect available outside of Gregory who has many off the field issues. I think this is a reach but the Saints need pass rush and have to take him here.

14. Miami Dolphins - RB - Todd Gurley - Georgia

This is a very interesting pick. Gurley is the best player available, but should they go defense after having to get rid of so many guys to sign Ndamukong Suh? Giving weapons to Tannehill is a must, and with recently picking up his option, Gurley would be a nice fit next to Lamar Miller.

15. San Francisco 49ers - DT - Arik Armstead -  Oregon

The 49ers had a horrible offseason that saw many of their current key players and future cornerstones leave the team. With the potential retirement of Justin Smith looming I think the 49ers grab some defensive line depth here that can contribute right away and be the anchor of that defense for the next decade.

16. Houston Texans - WR - Breshad Perriman - Central Florida

With Andre Johnson gone, the Texans need to find a replacement. They have some decent receivers already in place, but they need another possible star. Perriman has shot up the boards due to his intriguing size and speed combo.

17. San Diego Chargers - OT - Ereck Flowers - Miami

The Chargers could add an offensive lineman here and have one of the most impressive lines in the league. Rumor is that if Flowers is the guy taken, they will be inclined to move Fluker inside to Guard which could be a very smart move.

18. Kansas City Chiefs - C - Cameron Erving - Florida State

6th round pick Eric Kush is the only center on the Chiefs roster at the moment, so this should be a given since Andy Reid loves taking lineman, the desperate need and Erving be the best interior center and possibly best player left at this pick.  Receiver is another possibility as well since the Jeremy Maclin signing really didn’t fix anything.

19. Cleveland Browns - WR - Nelson Agholor -  USC

Josh Gordon is suspended for the year and the position is anemic at the moment. They would have loved to grab Parker at 12 or Perriman here, but with those two gone, Agholor is the next best guy.

20. Philadelphia Eagles - S - Landon Collins - Alabama

There are rumors Philly could take Damarious Randall here, but after watching Collins, he is the superior talent and before the college football season was over, could have been a top 10 pick. sliding him next to Malcolm Jenkins would help shore up the secondary for the Iggles.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - CB - Marcus Peters - Washington

The Bengals have a need for Offensive Line and Linebacker here but I think if Peters is sitting there at #21 that the Bengals have to take him.He is a physical press man corner the could really help that defense.. He would add great depth at the position and could be a very solid CB1 in the next few years.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers - CB - Byron Jones -  UConn

This has been a need for years in Pittsburgh, who stuck with Ike Taylor even though he has been hurting them. They lost Keenan Lewis a couple years ago, so they now need to replenish the position. Jones is an absolute freak athletically and though more raw than other prospects, the Steelers need to take a chance on athleticism instead of a safer pick such as Kevin Johnson.

23. Detroit Lions - CB - Kevin Johnson - Wake Forest

The Lions have a big need along the defensive line with the loss of Suh and Fairley, but when they see Kevin Johnson sitting there at #23 they have to take him. You can find defensive line help that can contribute in the 2nd or 3rd round but a corner of this caliber might not be available the next time their pick comes around. He does have an issue with tackling but I think with the proper coaching he can turn into a top notch corner.

24. Arizona Cardinals - OLB - Randy Gregory -  Nebraska

“If Hannibal Lecter ran a 4.3, we’d probably diagnose it as an eating disorder.” That is from Arizona Cardinals GM Steve Keim telling Darren Urban about NFL Prospects. Gregory clearly has issues, but he is an insane talent who at the end of the year was a projected top 5 pick. Grabbing him here at 24 is a steal well worth the risk.

25. Carolina Panthers - RB - Melvin Gordon - Wisconsin

The Panthers need help along the offensive line, in the secondary, and at wide receiver which is why Clayton freaked out when I made this pick. The Panthers do have a lot of issues, protecting Cam being one of them, but with the departure of Deangelo Williams the Panthers have a need for a #1 back in the rotation. Gordon is a top 15 talent that plays a devalued position. This is a questionable pick but I have to believe that if Gordon is there the Panthers snatch him up

26. Baltimore Ravens - DT - Malcolm Brown - Texas

Pernell Mcphee is gone,as well as Ravens legend Haloti Ngata. Time for GM Ozzie Newsome to replenish a defensive line that is now surprisingly lacking. Wide Receiver is another option here with the loss of Torrey Smith.

27. Dallas Cowboys - CB - Jalen Collins - LSU

If Melvin Gordon or Shane Ray are here they gladly take one of them, but with both off the board I was forced to go with the next need which is Cornerback. Jalen Collins gives the Cowboys a chance to make up for the Mo Claiborne decision. Collins has some off the field issues but Jerry has shown that he cares little about that.

28. Denver Broncos - OT- Andrus Peat - Stanford

With the loss of Orlando Franklin, it is time to take possibly the best offensive tackle in the draft. Crazy how Peat looks to be sliding everywhere due to many teams not needing this guy, but do not be surprised if he goes 10 to 15 picks higher. He would be playing right tackle in Denver, but they desperately need to protect Peyton Manning after he played through injury at the end of last year.

29. Indianapolis Colts - OT - Jake Fisher - Oregon

The Colts top priority is protecting Andrew Luck and they do that here with Jake Fisher. The bonus with FIsher is he can play Guard or Tackle and can compete for a starting spot right away. There might be better prospects right here but the flexibility of Fisher gives the Colts the security to pick him here.

30. Green Bay Packers - LB - Eric Kendricks -  UCLA

They had to play Clay Matthews at inside linebacker for a few games last year. With the departure of A.J. Hawk, this position is even more weak than before. Kendricks is trending up, as he can cover well in pass protection and is a decent run stuffer as well. Denzel Perryman from Miami (Fl.) could be an option here as well.

31. New Orleans Saints - WR - Phillip Dorsett - Miami

Earlier in the draft the Saints addressed the pass rush with Bud Dupree, here the find a replacement for Kenny Stills with the lightning quick Dorsett. He ran a 4.29 and 4.27 40 at his pro day. The loss of Jimmy Graham is huge for this offense, but Dorsett offers the big play ability that can keep them in games.

32. New England Patriots - DT - Eddie Goldman - Florida State

The beloved Vince Wilfork is now forever gone from New England. Time to find a replacement. Goldman is huge at 6’4” and 336 pounds. He needs some work, but there is some serious talent there. Receiver, running back or even a trade out of this spot are possibilities as well.