We recently did a stat prediction for the upcoming season, now we have decided to do a similar piece, but this time it’s all about the rookies of the NFL. Will we have any breakout stars lead the class, or will it be the top picks that dominate?
As done with the NFL stat leaders piece, Jeff picked the rookie leaders and Clayton explained why.
Passing
Yards- Jameis WInston - TB - 3,500 yards (1st overall pick)
This is dependent on your opinion between Winston and Mariota and their current weapons. For Winston it seems to be the fact that he has better current weapons around him. With Mike Evans (hoping he does not have a sophomore slump) being possibly one of the next great big receiver, his mentor Vincent Jackson and big tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Winston is surrounded by length, speed and playmaking abilities. My football worries for Winston revolve around the line, the running game and as Podcaster Will Reeve (find him on twitter at @WillReeveJr) has repeatedly said, his vision over the middle is not the best.
Touchdowns- Jameis Winston - TB - 22 TD’s (1st overall pick)
This leans toward Winston again. I do like some of Mariota’s weapons in the offense, but none of them are on the level of Winston’s three primary that I mentioned above at this time. Something not mentioned here is interceptions. I see Winston throwing at minimum 24 picks and gets close to 30.
Rushing
Yards- Todd Gurley - STL - 1,100 yards (10th overall pick)
Gurley is by far the most talented back in this draft, and it is not even remotely close. My worries here is rushing Gurley back from his torn ACL. Personally and really even how we feel on this site, you build for the future, especially if you are in the Rams position. I would rather have Gurley for 10 years than a good season but due to rushing him back hurting his abilities for the long haul. Jeff has told me that the former Georgia Bulldog could be ready and fully healthy by the season opener. If that is the case, 1,100 yards may be on the lighter side. If Gurley is held out due to the injury, you could see Melvin Gordon here as he will likely be heavily worked (even though he was a massive overdraft by the Chargers).
Touchdowns- TJ Yeldon - JAX - 9 TD’s (36th overall pick)
Jacksonville was clearly higher on Yeldon on the former Crimson Tide than the rest of the league. I liked Yeldon a lot, but felt it was an overdraft. If the line has improved as our buddy Josh says (find Josh on twitter at @RedsoxJagsfan), then you could see Yeldon getting the opportunities to lead the Jags, especially given his draft spot. Yeldon will have to beat out the bigger Toby Gerhart (personally I hope Gerhart plays much better than he did last year as I have liked him since his Stanford days) who could get the majority of the red-zone carries since he is bigger, and the quick Denard Robinson.
Receiving
Receptions- Nelson Agholor - PHI - 85 catches (20th overall pick)
Personally I would have given all of these categories to Amari Cooper if he is healthy, but that is too easy. Agholor is in an interesting position since there is decent wide out talent on the Eagles, especially since they hold Jordan Matthews in such a high regard. Agholor has the talent to get near the amount Jeff predicted, but with Philly’s QB situation in a terrible spot (Bradford is never reaching that ceiling so many idiots projected for him, I called him a bust the second he was picked), it is up to them and the line protecting their feeble QB. Philly may be imagining Agholor to step in for the departed Jeremy Maclin, but that may have to wait till next year.
Yards- Amari Cooper - OAK - 1,200 yards (4th overall pick)
If Cooper can stay healthy and does not get hit with some kind of Raiders curse, he is going to ball. He is a true no. 1 type receiver and gives Derek Carr possibly the best receiver he will ever have the chance of throwing too. Cooper may not be a prototypical burner, but he is still fast (4.42 40 at the combine), is an insanely sharp route runner, and the athleticism is sneaky, but astounding. Though he may not be that burner, he has excellent separation skills, giving him the ability to find that hole to get open in. This is probably a good starting point if not actually a bit giving for Cooper, but I honestly would not be surprised if he had over 1,400 yards. Like I said above, we could see Cooper lead rookies in all of these stats.
Touchdowns- DeVante Parker - MIA - 9 TD’s (14th overall pick)
In my opinion he should have been the second wide receiver picked in the draft after Cooper. The long, fast and explosive receiver has all the tools to be a great red zone option for Ryan Tannehill. He will have to fight with Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry and the declining Greg Jennings to get targets, but his size alone should give him an edge over the others when it comes time to get that fade in the back corner, as can be seen in the image above as Parker catches a pass over Brent Grimes. He was only credited for 3 drops last year so his reliability is great for the young QB. If healthy (he had a foot injury last year resulting in a surgery that could keep him out for a bit still), Parker could really shine for the Dolphins.
Defense
Tackles- Eric Kendricks - MIN - 115 tackles (45th overall pick)
Kendricks should have gone 15-20 picks sooner and it was all luck for Minnesota that he slipped this far. He is a bit smaller than some would like at only six feet tall, but Kendricks is a tackling machine, posting 149 solo tackles last year for UCLA and winning the Butkus award. He may even be able to handle the inside with former UCLA teammate Anthony Barr and veteran Chad Greenway flanking him. This estimate may be much lower than his final numbers show. This could be in the area of 130+.
Sacks- Vic Beasley - ATL - 8.5 sacks (8th overall pick)
Jeff's
Interceptions- Marcus Peters - KC - 5 INT’s (18th overall pick)
Peters may not have been the first corner back drafted this year, but I would say he is the most talented. The main issue was his red flags, as he was suspended and eventually released by the University of Washington. Thankfully Reid and Dorsey acknowledged the talent and swooped him up. With Sean Smith suspended the first three games of the year due to a DUI, Peters has the opportunity to step in. Peters has competition for the spot, which will be discussed in a later piece, but he is the most talented of the options. He is gifted with great athleticism, the size and length that the modern NFL craves, coverage abilities (his fluidity is exceptional) and the ball skills to be dangerous. With the opportunity knocking and his gifts, expect Peters to have a season where he stands out on the field even as a rookie.
You can follow Jeff on Twitter at @Jeffkay1989
You can follow Clayton on Twitter at @19Yanks23
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