Clayton -
I have waited long enough! I can not remember a NBA off-season that I have looked forward to so much.
I am clearly a Lakers fan, but I have come to appreciate how many teams build, rebuild, and my personal favorite, tank to win!
Jeff, one such team to have “tanked” is your Celtics. I have told you many times that your Celtics have been smarter than my Lakers, so by no means am I blasting them.
This tank job started out with Ray Allen leaving for Miami. That lead to the Celtics trading franchise star Paul Pierce and beloved Kevin Garnett to the Nets. This brought about major cap relief, trade exceptions and with an insane amount of draft picks.
Technically you could say this tank job really started with trading Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder for Jeff Green. That infused much needed talent and got rid of an already regressing Perkins. Sadly Green had a heart issue and missed the season.
Back to the point. The Celtics were left with Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green and a few other valuable pieces but nothing one could consider cornerstones.
Since the trade of Pierce, Garnett and Allen leaving for Miami, it was rumored Rondo was on the block. Then in December it finally happened. Rondo was dealt for Jae Crowder, Brandon Wright, Jameer Nelson and first round draft pick.
Wright was traded within a month to Phoenix for a possible first round draft pick but likely two second round picks. Ainge is collecting more assets.
A few days later, Green was traded to the Grizzlies for Tayshaun Prince and future first round draft pick.
There was a bit more to that trade, but it only further lead to more draft picks and another salary exception.
Bottom line from all of this dealing? Eight possible first round draft picks (many with stipulations attached such as receiving multiple second round picks) and 6 possible second round picks. That would be if all the stipulations fell the Celtics way. It won't but the horde is impressive. Not to mention nearly $26 million in trade exceptions.
All of that to go along with Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger, James Young (a personal favorite), Isaiah Thomas who was acquired at the deadline, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller, and possible future cornerstone Marcus Smart who you robbed from the Lakers a pick before in the 2014 NBA Draft.
The future is extremely bright if Ainge can figure the pieces. Before I dive into who they could go after in free agency and the draft, what do you think they should do in those regards?
Jeff -
I won't break down how we got to this point since you already laid out the history of it, but I will say I think we made a mistake getting rid of Jeff Green. Is he a cornerstone player? No, but he is a very solid player. If he can be a 3rd option on your team he will thrive and you will have a very formidable team. But what's done is done so no point in dwelling on that.
Celtics are in a weird spot with the current players on this roster. We have some very good players but the weird thing is they aren't good enough as a group to be a contender, but at the same time you can't just go out and find a random available player that would be an upgrade over any of them like your Lakers could do with someone like Robert Sacre.
I'll start here by breaking down what I think we have with our current roster.
Marcus Smart is a point guard that I could see leading this team for a decade strong, he will be our starter at that position no question going forward.
The deadline trade for Isaiah Thomas has been huge for us and he is basically instant offense off the bench and is reminding me of a young Jamal Crawford, a guy who can come off the bench and put up 20 points in 17 minutes of action.
At the shooting guard spot we could use some size, either as a starter or coming off the bench. I love Avery Bradley, he is a tough nosed defender who goes all out on every play. He has improved on his offensive game year in and year out and I feel like he will only keep getting better. The only knock I have against him is his 6'2" 180 pound frame. That is entirely too small for a shooting guard in this day and age.
Now what we have with Evan Turner (a guy that I have been unconvinced of ever since he came out of college) is a guy that can play the 1-3 spots well, can score with ease, and adds size on the wing. I think he is best suited to come off the bench for us in the future.
Our front court is likely to change after this season. I envision Brandon Bass leaving and us possibly dealing fan favorite Jared Sullinger. We have Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller sharing time at the Center position but Olynyk is best suited for the Power Forward slot which is why I think we will ship Sully out and slide Olynyk over. In an ideal world the Celtics will be able to move Olynyk to PF next season and draft a top notch Center this summer.
All of that depends on where we land in the lottery. Our 2 key positions I would like to see us focus on is Center and Small Forward.
You are more of the scout than I am Clayton so who do you suggest we go after in the draft?
Clayton -
The Green trade was odd to me as well, but you have to take into account what Ainge was trying to do. He was trying to tank. This was the reason for shipping out Wright too. Lose as many games as you can and get a higher draft pick.
It was all going to plan as well after the trades. In January they went 5-11. But then February came and Ainge's high draft pick hopes fell apart. Since February 1, the C's have gone 13-7. Not great, but in the Eastern Conference that is actually quite good. They could have gotten a top 5 pick before, but now? They have an outside chance of making the playoffs.
That in itself has a catch-22 scenario. You want the high draft pick for the added talent, but you love seeing the rest of the talent gel and grow together. That even with Sully being out for rest of the season and Olynyk seemingly in and out with injuries.
With regards to the draft, they are currently projected to pick around 9 to 11. That leaves some good prospects for the needs you have. You need a true 5 (center) and 2 (shooting guard but can be exchangeable for another wing). Generally I go with the best talent but for the sake of this I will try to fit needs mainly with my tidbits on the prospects.
If the Celtics continue at this pace and land in the playoffs, most of these guys will not be available. I expect a fight but I do not believe they will win enough down the stretch to pass the combination of the Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets and Indiana Pacers. The games might be within reach, but passing 2 or three teams with only 18 games left is much more difficult.
I'll start with the other 2/3 position then go to the center, I believe James Young will develop so another sizable 2 or 3 instead of the shorter Bradley would be nice. These are the likely top 4 wings in the draft, and at least one or two should be available for the Celtics. There are two bigs that could be available for the Celtics in their range. Coach Brad Stevens has already shown a great ability to develop players so I would have high hopes for many of these guys in this system.
I will go in depth about the Celtics first pick, but their second 1st rounder and their two second I will just give names and maybe a blurp if I really like a player in that range.
Wings
Stanley Johnson – Arizona – 6'7” – 237 – Frosh.
Johnson has a gap in where many expect him to go. ESPN's Chad Ford has Johnson much lower than many other sites and analysts, placing him at around pick 12. Most others have Johnson around pick 5. I like much of Ford's writings, but I believe Johnson goes closer to no. 5 than 12.
Johnson is already well developed in terms of his body, but with a higher draft pick you want a guy that is highly athletic, think Andrew Wiggins athleticism. Johnson does not have elite athleticism so that could be a minor case for concern. That is not to say he is not athletic, but not as fluid as others. What Johnson does provide is an aggressive style of play with an improving jump shot. He is also a good defender. One weakness is his ball handling. He is lacking and can tend to be turnover prone. That can be corrected and improved.
Mario Hezonja – 6'8” – 200 – International
Hezonja is a fairly athletic floor spacer who is creating buzz overseas. His shooting is what seems to be setting him apart from other wings right now. Hezonja possesses a high basketball IQ and a bit of cockiness in a good way.
Downside is the rumor of his humbleness and selfishness. Though he is having an excellent year, there are concerns about his effort levels on the defensive end of the floor.
He has been projected as high as 6 and as low as 10. His stock seems to be on the rise at the moment, so he may be well gone by the time it comes to the celtics.
Kelly Oubre – Kansas – 6'7” – 204 – Frosh.
By far my favorite wing prospect in the draft. He started the year off poorly on coach Bill Self, but it seems like every year that tends to be the problem at Kansas. Wiggins had issues at the beginning of last year too at Kansas.
He is a very fluid athlete on both ends of the court with great size. Oubre may be the most fluid wing in the draft. If not the draft, at least of the top 4 here. His defense is good and improving and has elite talent when it comes to range from outside. He is really starting to turn it on for the Jayhawks now.
Though not quite Wiggins, Oubre does not always seem to be the most assertive (a major question about Wiggins coming into the draft last year), he is very good 2/3 and assertiveness should come when he gets to the league.
Oubre is projected between 8 to 14. If available I would sprint to the podium the instant I saw him there and to me would be the best fit for Stevens and the Celtics in regards to wings.
Justice Winslow – Duke – 6'6” – 222 – Frosh.
Winslow is very strong at the 2/3 and offers good athleticism as well. The measurements show a clearly NBA ready body just like Johnson. Winslow also is a very high energy player.
Winslows downfall is his outside shooting. From deep, 3 point range, he has been adequate, but his 2 point shooting is atrocious. That would scare me.
Already a comparison is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. NBA ready body. Strong. Good/great defender. Bad shooter.
Winslow is seen to go around pick 8 or 9. That could be out of the Celtics reach, but the fit doesnt seem to be there for me.
Centers
Willie Cauley-Stein – Kentucky – 7'0”– 240 – Junior
WCS quite possibly the most gifted defender to come into the league to my knowledge. He legitimately could guard all 5 positions. I am not kidding. In a conference game, he was able to catch up to, stop and let his teammates catch up when a pass was stolen and a potential fast break was forming by the other teams point guard. Cauley-Stein is incredibly athletic possessing quick feet, long arms and a good body to fit. His advanced metrics may be a bit low in regards to block and steal percentage, but with how Kentucky is structured, I believe it is due to the minutes.
There are two downfalls to Cauley-Stein. First off, and this is not a real hindrance but reality, WCS is a junior, and already 21 years old. Before next season even starts he will be 22. secondly, and this is huge an could lead to a slip of 3 to 5 spots is his offensive game.
At the moment Cauley-Stein is essentially DeAndre Jordan. Other than lobs, transitions baskets and put backs, his offense is very poor. His low post game is weak and needs major development. He has shown signs recently of a mid-range shot but that needs to develop quickly and his low post game needs serious attention. The low post may never develop but if the mid-range shot comes along that would be huge.
One minor concern that I recently read about is WCS other interests. He might not be as devoted to the game as others. That likely wont be a factor, but when it comes to the draft, all bets are off.
This is the best chance for the Celtics to get a good 5 in this draft in my opinion. He has been seen mocked from 6 to 14. 14 I believe is way too low and 6 may be a bit high. From 8 to 10 is where I feel he would be a great fit. With future assets, the Celtics could trade up if need be to acquire WCS.
Myles Turner – Texas – 7'0” – 240 – Frosh.
A huge mystery is what Turner really is. Against weak competition he has been great. Against superior competition, best instance was against Kentucky, he disappeared.
Turner is an extremely odd runner who is a great shot blocker, solid defender and has a nice outside shot that could extend to the NBA 3 point line. He needs to add strength and hopefully his body will figure itself out. The way he runs makes you cringe sometimes. He needs to add a ton of strength especially to his lower body.
Despite that, Turner oozes potential and many scouts are extremely high on him. His likely range is from 7 to 14. Though he is a possibility for the Celtics, I would rather have WCS and his elite defense.
The Celtics also possess the Clippers first round pick this year. If they go for a wing with their first pick, they could end up going with a big or vice versa. Possible names include:Trey Lyles, could be long gone after a very good recent stretch; R.J. Hunter, great shooter who has been off the mark this year but is starting to heat up; Justin Anderson; Christian Wood; Sam Dekker;Caris LeVert, we will see how the injury effects his stock; Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, great defender who is a major project on the offensive end; Domantas Sabonis, son of the great Aryvdas Sabonis (if he declares); and Kris Dunn, extremely talented point guard with size who could be a nice back up for Smart.
Their two second round picks should be both within the first 9 or 10 picks. They have their own and possess the Sixers second round pick (that is shocking) and possibly another. With all the protections on these picks, it is easy to get turned around. Names here could be any of the names listed for their second 1st round pick, as well as: Dakari Johnson, he should probably go late 1st but could go early to mid 2nd; Robert Upshaw, amazingly talented but kicked off two college teams; Jake Layman, underrated wing who could be a Chandler Parsons lite?; or any draft and stash international players or domestic players willing to play overseas.
As said before, the future is bright for the Celtics when it comes to the draft. But do you see any realistic trades that could be made? With their wealth of picks, salary exemptions and even the trade chip of Gerald Wallace's contract, they have a ton to offer. Also do you see any free agents that fit not only needs of position and skill but needs in chemistry and locker room?
Jeff-
As far as trades go it is kind of hard to predict what Ainge might do because just about every trade he's made in the past 3 years has been to gain assests for the future instead of pieces for right now. The only trading I see us doing is in the draft to move up, barring a major star being shopped. I feel like if we get a bad bounce in the lottery we could see our two 1st round picks or a 1st and a 2nd being packaged for a top 5 selection.
I know the popular free agent rumor is Kevin Love to Boston in the offseason. Love has been one of my favorite players since entering the league and I feel he is suffering from Chris Bosh syndrome, where his value is under appreciated because his 3rd option role on the team. Frankly, I don't see him wanting to come to Boston and I don't see Ainge shelling out the cash for him. I'll go ahead and list a few guys I could realistically see coming to Boston.
Deandre Jordan-Center- I could see us bringing him in to pair with Olynyk in the front court and using our pick on a SG/SF. Ainge has long admired DJ dating back to the Rondo/Jordan swap rumors of years past. He would bring a dominating defensive presence that would also allow Olynyk to slide to his natural PF position and spread the floor.
Greg Monroe-Center- Similar to Jordan in years past, Monroe was part of the rondo rumor mill within the past calendar year. He would provide all the positives of adding Deandre Jordan with a slightly cheaper price tag.
Khris Middleton-Shooting Guard/Small Forward- He's not a big name but he has definitely been making his presence felt in the league this year. He is a restricted free agent so signing him would definitely be a tough task. He's got very good size at the SG/SF position.He's shooting 44% from three on the year which is a nice boost to his overall game. A pairing of him and James Young battling for minutes wouldn't be a bad thing for Celtics fans.
KJ McDaniels and Rodney Stuckey are two other free agents I could see Ainge taking a look at. It's too early in the process to really be able to predict what will happen but I do know one thing. Winning these meaningless games is doing nothing but hurting the Celtics future. They need to learn what's best and #TankToWin.
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