Jeff -
Ok Clayton, since you were the one to initiate the Celtics Future topic I will go ahead and start off the Lakers. Like we both stated in our Celtics post the Lakers are not as well off as the C's, but that doesn't mean there isn't at least, an albeit small, bit of hope for the future.
Let's start with what they currently have under contract for the future. The players you have under contract through the 2015-2016 season are Jordan Clarkson, Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Julius Randle, Robert Sacre, Jordan Hill, Ryan Kelly, Ed Davis, and Tarik Black. If you are keeping track at home that is 1 PG, 2 SG's, no SF, 3 PF's, and 3 C's.
So obviously this not a well balanced roster. Not to mention the fact that of those 9 players under contract maybe only 2 of them could start on the majority of NBA teams, and that is being very kind to Nick Young.
The good news is the Lakers will have around $20 million in cap space to play around with, the bad news is the Lakers aren't the hot spot destination that draws free agents the way their fans still like to think they are. Go ahead and find me the last big name free agent clamoring to run to LA and play alongside Kobe. Which by the way, who knows what version of Kobe we will be getting next year.
The draft pick situation for the Lakers can either be fairly good or devastatingly bad depending on how the rest of this season plays out. As we all know the Lakers made the steal of the century trade by robbing the Phoenix Suns for Steve Nash in exchange for their 2015 first round pick, which was subsequently traded to the 76ers. This pick, however, is top 5 protected so if the Lakers do enough right things to get that top 5 selection it's their's and things in LaLa Land are looking slightly better. If they manage to screw it up and fall outside of the top 5 that pick is shipped off to Philly and the Lakers lose out on the top talent in the draft. Currently they have the 4th worst record in the league so let's be kind and say that's where they finish out. Now this guarantees them a top 7 pick, with their most likely pick being 5th overall at a 35% chance. They do have a 14% chance of getting the 6th or 7th pick which would mean they lose it. Now they do have another pick coming in the first round from the Jeremy Lin trade with Houston but that pick will be a late round pick, which is basically hit or miss for talent.
I know I painted a bleak picture of the Lakers future but let's see if Clayton can convince me that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Clayton -
Our situation is bleak, but at least we are not the Brooklyn Nets. There is some hope.
1st off we need to fire Byron Scott and bring in a guy who is actually a good coach and more importantly can develop young guys. The developing aspect may be the most important. We are likely to be young again next year so this is sorely needed. Much in the mold of Brad Stevens in Boston. Thankfully I feel Scot has helped us tank, but he is still a moron and needs to go.
I mean come on, who plays Carlos Boozer or Robert Sacre over Ed Davis? Scott and that's it. More loses though I guess thankfully.
I will attempt to avoid Kobe for the future and much of the article, because like you said, we have no clue about him. Plus he says he will likely retire after next season.
Let's talk about those salaries first off. Kobe's deal is an albatross, but thankfully it is for only one more season (which coincidentally ends during the vaunted 2016 free agent market). Lakers fans, including myself love him, but that deal was stupid.
Nick Young we are stuck with, but if he can be a happy medium of this year and last, that is a valuable asset that if not playing for us could turn into at least a second round pick. He isn't a starter but if he could be a solid sixth or seventh man.
Jordan Hill's deal for next year is a team option so he should likely be cut, giving us another $9 million to work with.
Sacre is easily replaceable and could be with an even cheaper rookie. He is only a 12th man on a decent team anyways and could be cut bringing in another near million to work with. In fact, they should cut him just so a new coach (praying there is one) will not be tempted to play him.
After all of that, it actually gives us around $30 million under the cap to work with.
This is where it could start to get fun. Despite Randle being hurt all year long, he has huge potential. A comparison for him is Zach Randolph. Will he end up being as good? Who knows, but when he broke his leg he also took care of his foot issue. This downtime has been unfortunate, but he has recently been cleared for non-contact training. To his benefit, Randle has Steve Nash and Kobe to help bring this kid along. Again, will it work? Who knows, but those are two all-time greats teaching a talented young man who has a sky high ceiling. Admittedly I was bummed with the selection of him (I wanted Marcus Smart, bloody C's...), but this may have worked out better for us. He was picked in some mocks to go as high as five and earlier in his freshman year, no. 2 overall. His lose in development time could have lead to more loses meaning we keep our pick which I will get to later. He was a higher pick so his salary is around $3.1 million, which is not bad at all.
Then there is Jordan Clarkson. He was a possible first round draft pick last June but unexpectedly slipped to the mid second. The Wizards picked him and we bought him for cash. He is in the top 5 for ESPN's PER for rookies and is getting better and better. He is more of a combo guard playing the point (1), but he played the 1 at Mizzou so until we upgrade, we should let him play. He too has Kobe and Nash helping him. After a few of his passes against the Pistons the other night, you can already seeing it paying dividends. Clarkson may never develop into a starting 1 on a good team, but he could be at least a great bench guy. He is developing quickly showing improved passing, shooting and defending. He has had the typical rookie growing pains, but that is to be expected. Being a second round pick he has a team option for next year of around $845 thousand. The Lakers will undoubtedly pick that up.
Ed Davis is one of my favorite players. Alas, his deal for next year is a player option. We could re-sign him, which would be great, but that would clearly bring up his salary. That would be fine if he and Randle can form a decent rotation at the 4. He is a metrics darling who's really only big problem is fouling issues. Maybe range is an issue, but he is shooting over 60%, so whatever. At worst he is a solid first big man off the bench.
Ryan Kelly is a decent stretch 4 who came into the year injured and seems to always be in Scott's dog house. Did I mention Scott is an idiot? Anyways, likely will never be a starter, but at $1.7 million for next season and a free agent after next year, that is just fine. Stretch 4's are increasingly valuable and if Kelly can regain his shooting, then it was a great pick for a late second rounder. If not, he was still a good pick all things considered and not a big loss.
According to Hoops Hype by USA Today Sports, Tarik Black actually is a free agent next year adding another half million to work with. Obviously that is not much, but something. Honestly, after seeing Black play despite Scott's stupidity, I would sign him to an extension of the same salary. He went undrafted and has shown he could someday be a decent 4th big off the bench. I would take him over Sacre.
On guy who I would like to see get more of chance on our D-League team and for rest of this season is Jabari Brown. He has shown some ability so far on his 10 day contract, and looks like a decent athlete. That is another thing we need. More athleticism. Brown would be a deep bench guy but who knows? Wes Matthews was undrafted. In no way am I say Brown is as good as Matthews or will become as good, but saying it is nice to see what you have. If he fails then it is a minimum contract at most and likely non-guaranteed. No big fuse.
So that is what we have so far on the roster as for guys who could be back next year. That first takes me to the draft. I will only discuss the draft this year. The Lakers seem to be set in the 1-4 spots in the draft if the lottery were to play it straight with the Knicks, Wolves and 76ers ahead of them and the Magic two games behind. Now anything can happen, but for the Lakers sake, they are hoping to stay in the top 4. They also have the Rockets pick which should be around 26. The Lakers also posses a high second round pick and possibly another second depending on the Clippers protections on it (has to be between 50-55). That is 3 and possibly 4 new young, athletic bodies to add to the above young guys the Lakers already have.
For the sake of this exercise, let's say they have the option to get any of the vaunted top 4 picks, Jahlil Okafor, Karl Anthony-Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay. I will also give three options if they get the fifth pick.
Jahlil Okafor – Center – Duke – 6'11” – 275 – Frosh.
Okafor is the presumed overall pick and rumored to be the Lakers first choice if given the option. It is easy to understand why too. He may have the best low post game of any recent bigs to come into the league. He can score in many different ways and is a solid rebounder at around 9 per game. He is strong and has decent foot speed. Okafor is hyper efficient in the post, thus proven by his nearly 67% field goal percentage.
The downfall with Okafor is that he is not as athletic as you would like, his defense is lacking and his free throw percentage (51%) is not good. He does block more than a shot per game, but honestly after watching him, he needs improvement. Personally if I feel if he were to drop some weight and tone up much of that could improve. Not drastically, but will help.
The problem with being the frontrunner since last summer is that everyone gets to nitpick every little aspect about your game. Okafor has just kept destroying people and has the potential to be a starting center in the NBA for the next 15 years.
Karl Anthony-Towns – Center – Kentucky – 6'11” – 250 – Frosh.
If I had to personally chose between Okafor and Towns it would be Towns 98% of the time. According to multiple analyses, Towns is hot on the tail of Okafor. In fact, for two of the top 3 of the top 4 teams (Knicks, Wolves and Lakers), I feel he would be a better fit. Though Towns may have a bit more bust potential, he in my opinion, has the superior ceiling.
Though Kentucky runs that crazy split system due to all their talent (only plays about half the game due to the system), Towns is shining like no other. He is big, fast, super athletic and his offensive game is improving. Okafor is more skilled in the low post.... for now, but Towns has more range, it is not crazy to say he could stretch it out to a corner NBA three. Not only does he already have more range, but you can see the possibilities in his shooting due to his free throw percentage (81%).
That is not even mentioning his defensive prowess. Though he is not as big of an athletic freak as teammate Willie Cauley-Stein, Towns has the better block rate. In barely over 20 minutes a game, Towns blocks nearly two and a half shots per game.
Towns is a legit two way big that you wont have to take out of the game late due to his free throw shooting. Towns is easily my second favorite guy in this draft. I will soon come to my favorite.
D'Angelo Russell – Point Guard – Ohio State – 6'5” – 176 – Frosh.
Russell could easily be this draft's best shooter and might be the most overlooked guy so far in the NCAA. Don't believe me? Watch his highlights versus Minnesota, here, take a look https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQnWlHEfd7Y. He stops on a dime dribbles behind his back and nails a three like the guy was already by the hoop. It looks like the game is just so slow for him. He also has great passing skills. With his size, he could be a sweet point guard.
Problem is, is he really a 1? Yes he can pass, has the sweet stroke and has the size teams crave now, but there are real questions about being a 1 in the NBA. Can he guard NBA point guards? He is a decent athlete with great length, but he does not have the elite athleticism of today's lead guards. Though he does get his shots, from what I have seem he does not like to drive the ball and dish it, which is almost mandatory for point guards. In college he may be a great point guard, can he run an offense and take the ball up court when pressured by guys who are elite defenders?
He is a really good player with a great shot and range for days and seems to have shot up the boards this year to lock down a top 4 spot in the draft.
Emmanuel Mudiay – Point Guard – China – 6'5” – 196
Mudiay is fast, super athletic, powerful and is by far my favorite player in this draft. Mudiay elected not to go to SMU and play for Larry Brown, point guard god. Instead, Mudiay, a Congolese refugee, chose to support his family by avoiding the mob known as the NCAA and playing in the Chinese Basketball Association.
Sadly Mudiay got injured and only was able to play in 12 games due to it and former NBA player Will Bynum taking his spot. There are a lot of question marks about the decision, especially how he played in only 12 games. People seem to forget that Kyrie Irving, NBA superstar and former no. 1 overall pick, only played in 11 games at Duke. Huh... how about that. And despite there being questions about how good the CBA is, they are grown men and every team has two former NBA players on their roster (two is the league limit per roster). Sure there are negatives like the defense over there is sparse, but he still played extremely well. On the bright side, now that Mudiay's time over in China is over, he is now coming back to the states to get some tutelage with Larry Brown still. If you have ESPN Insider, you have to read Chad Ford's article about Mudiay.
Mudiay is a true 1 who is aggressive, powerful and can defend anyone and is about to get great mentoring from Brown. Mudiay has great vision and a superb ability to pass the rock. There should also be no worries about Mudiay as person. From everything that I have read, he is a mature kid who only left to play professionally because he had to support his family. Before deciding to play in China, Mudiay was rated the no. 2 NBA prospect for 2015. Check out his YouTube highlights from over in China from HDXposure https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC_--s6M3QI.
There are certainly issues with Mudiay,like most of these guys. His jump shot needs some improving, but from watching, it may need to be just his shot selection. There don't seem to be any hitches or anything wrong in his form. Plus his range is excellent too. There are also reports from China saying that he tended to be too selfish in getting his own shots, but that could be him trying to impress the coaches. Probably didn't help he was the most gifted player on the floor. The one main concern I have is his free throw shooting. He shot only 57.4% from the charity stripe. He only had a limited amount of reps, but it is still concerning. With Brown helping Mudiay and with him having all the time in the world till the Draft to improve this, I have no doubts it will get better.
If I were the Lakers and had the opportunity to grab Mudiay, even at nos. 1 or 2, I would take him in a heart beat. This is now a league of point guards and Mudiay is the best of this year's crop. Pairing him up with Clarkson and getting guidance from Kobe (it would be nice if the Lakers ask Nash to stay on as a coach for the young guys), would help out the future. Adding a big man down low would be great, but there are no guarantees that we can sign any of the league's premiere 1's right now. Fans are longing for Russell Westbrook, but I doubt he comes and he will be near 30 when he is a free agent. Take Mudiay now and you could be set at the 1 for the next 15 years.
If the Lakers fall past four and go to five (anything past five we lose the pick to the 76ers), there are a few options out there for us. I'll make this a bit quicker.
This may be a bit too high for Kelly Oubre, but he is a phenomenal athlete with great range. HE needs to be a bit more aggressive, but Bill Self's teams never seem to let their best wings flourish, at least recently anyways. With his abilities I would be willing to reach a bit in hopes that we could develop him.
Stanley Johnson from Arizona. Small forward with an NBA ready body. Improving shot and a good defender. He needs to improve his ball handling, but he is super aggressive and as shown at 'Zona, willing to take over games.
Kristaps Porzingas seems to be a bit of an unknown and most mocks have him further down despite ESPN having him around 5. He is a 7 footer who is said to be a poor man's Dirk Nowitzki. He is super lean and needs to get much stronger, but the skills are there.There is some debate to whether he would be a good fit since the Lakers already have Randle, but talent is talent and the Lakers lack it. If they feel he is worth it, then pick him.
There are others such as Mario Hezonja, Willie Cauley-Stein and maybe Kevon Looney who could go at 5 but the three mentioned above would be the preferable picks.
The Lakers also own a late first that is the Rockets and their own high second round pick. Many of the guys available at the late first pick could be available in the high second so I will just list some guys in the mix for both spots.
R.J. Hunter is kind of an under the radar guy when it comes to the casual fan, but teams love him. Hunter is a lethal shooter who sadly has been forced to do too much at Georgia State. That has lead to a decrease in his numbers overall this season, but they are on the uptick meaning he could be in the late teens to early 20s.. If he was just allowed to run around and shoot from deep, it is believed he will regain his lethality.
Trey Lyles is an intriguing big man from Kentucky. Another power forward (4), but Lyles is 6'10” which borders center (5) height nowadays. A decent athlete that is strong, but his stock is shooting up after a good past few weeks.
Dakari Johnson is a true 5 who is less athletic that teammates Towns and Cauley-Stein, but still has nice potential. He is raw, yes even compared to WCS, but he has been stuck behind superior talents the past two years. If he were at another college, I could imagine his skills would be finer and could be looking at a top 20 pick.
Sam Dekker is a swiss army knife. He seems to be solid at everything, but not great at anything. He is a good shooter, but much of the attention this year has fallen on Frank Kaminsky and split with Nigel Hayes. He hasn't had the season that was expected, but that is understandable after Kaminsky has gained the national spotlight.
Christian Wood is a 6'11” 4, which in terms of size is actually a 5. He is raw as most of these guys in this list are, but he is super athletic and looks to have a lot of potential. I think a tournament run and good workouts could push him higher than some expect. I could see him picked in the high 20s if all goes well for Wood.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson he is the wing version of Willie Cauley-Stein. A terrific defender but his offense is way behind. He finds ways to score, but if he could ever develop a good jump shot or consistent range, look out.
Caris LeVert the heir to the Michigan throne was just starting to turn his season around right before he developed a stress fracture in mid January. He has a sweet stroke and good passing skills, but he still needs development especially with the loss of playing time this year. He has special athletic gifts and could be a steal if he were to go late in the first.
Domantas Sabonis is a stretch for most. From what I have seen of other guys, Chad Ford is the only one to even have him on his “Big Board.” Sabonis is raw as one would expect and only comes off the bench for Gonzaga, but the potential is there. Just the fact that his dad is Arvydas Sabonis, quite possibly the best european big of all-time, makes me want to take him. He would likely be shipped over to Europe to develop, but he is a lottery ticket.
Delon Wright is a 6'5” point guard for the University of Utah. Obviously he has good size for the position and knows how to create for others. His junior year was most likely better than his senior year, but he would be a good pick. At the minimum I could see him being a great backup point guard.
Tyus Jones this is a tough pick. Not because Jones is not a good player, as a freshman he is a good floor general for Duke, but his size is lacking, 6'1” and his athleticism is not great as well. He has great court vision, wonderful passing ability and can shoot well, but the size and athleticism will hurt him. If he were two or three inches taller with more athleticism and his current abilities he could be a top 10 pick. Alas, he was not blessed with those physical attributes.
I find Jake Layman very intriguing. He reminds me a bit of Chandler Parsons when he was at Florida. A good shooter with great abilities but maddeningly inconsistent. Recently I watched a game featuring Maryland and Layman and it hit me. Then the comparison was mentioned and it felt good knowing I was not alone. Layman has good size, athleticism, good defense and has a great shooting ability. He does need to get stronger and improve his creative abilities, but the tools are there. I have seen as high as late first to late second on him.
Robert Upshaw is a complicated prospect. He could be a top 20 guy if he hadn't been kicked off of two college squads. That sends all sorts of alerts to NBA teams. He has the size and skills, but will he be able to get it together? As a second round pick, he could be given a chance, and if he fails, it was not a huge waste.
The Lakers also have one final possibility of a pick an it is the Clippers second round pick if it falls between 50 and 55. This is generally thought of as a throw out pick, but due to recent success of undrafted free agents and other second rounders, it could still be a good pick. The Lakers could use it as a draft and stash type for a European or other international player, but there are a few known guys that could be picked this late such as: Chris Walker, PF, Florida; Andrew Harrison, PG, Kentucky; A.J. Hammons,C, Purdue; Rakeem Christmas,PF/C Syracuse; Marcus Paige, PG, UNC; or Wayne Selden Jr, SG, Kansas.
As with all draftees, this is all dependent on if they declare, unless they are seniors.
My ideal picks would run down something like this:
With the first pick I would prefer to see the top two choices in order be Mudiay and Towns.
The discrepancy between the late first and early second is not too much so the 6 preferred guys if available would be: R.J. Hunter, Dakari Johnson, Christian Wood, Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis and Jake Layman.
As said before, the last pick is not guaranteed to even have and seems to be a lottery ticket at best, but if given two choices for the pick, it would be Wayne Selden Jr., despite his severe fall this year and Chris Walker, who is insanely raw, but his physical attributes are astounding.
With a possible roster next year just from the draft and current guys under salary, the Lakers could see: 1: Jordan Clarkson (current), Emmanuel Mudiay (draft); 2: Kobe Bryant (C), Hunter (D), Wayne Selden Jr. (D); 3: Nick Young (C); 4 Julius Randle (C), Ryan Kelly (C); 5: Tarik Black (C), Dakari Johnson (D).
That may not be the most impressive roster in the league but it is already better than what we have now. That takes away from this year and possibly next: Nash on his final year of his deal; Jordan Hill and his awful deal; Sacre and his pathetic abilities; Ed Davis, who could be back but could leave in free agency elsewhere; Carlos Boozer who has not been good since probably his early time with the Jazz; Jeremy Lin and his underrated abilities but his overpaid salary; Ronnie Price and his shoe throwing; Wayne Ellington and his spot on a good team as a bench piece; Wes Johnson and his bust of pick years ago; and likely Jabari Brown from this year.
That leaves free agency and even the possibility of buying picks like how the Lakers bought Jordan Clarkson from the Wiz last year to help further improve the roster.
I could see the Lakers buying a early to mid second round pick to get guys such as Ron Baker, Jake Layman and maybe even a guy like Robert Upshaw. Management seems to finally be getting it that with youth generally comes potential and better athleticism than aging veterans. There is nothing wrong with having a vet around, but deep on your bench or shuttling before your team and D-League, young guys developing and fine tuning their skills and athletic abilities. Even if the Lakers do not get the Clippers pick, watch out for the chance of this happening.
After all that draft talk, it only leave free agency and trades.
As Jeff said in the Celtics post, trades are unpredictable. Guys can go from agitated back to happy. Or teams want to dump salaries, but not give up actual good players. Sadly, it probably does not matter anyways. The Lakers have fewer assets than teams like the C's and should not throw give up too many future assets just for competing now.
What fans need to realize is that the Lakers are not competing next year. We would have to draft well and sign multiple great guys. There are options out there and I will soon list them, but people have to remember, money is not everything and even then, current teams can offer more. Despite the allure of Los Angeles fading a bit, it may be overstated. The Clippers, though they did draft well, were able to keep Chris Paul. My theory with how to draw free agents is this: One, have sufficient money. Two, have a market to build the players brand. And three, have talent in place already.
This past summer was also a bad year to get guys. LeBron was never coming out West. It is too tough of a conference to get to the Finals. Carmelo was swayed by the money and his wife to stay in New York.
Then the Lakers decided to once again sit out of restricted free agency. This always pisses me the hell off, and the team needs to change it. RFA's are generally younger guys that are not true max deals. The only bad thing that could happen is you give a stupid deal or the team matches and all you waste is a bit of time, paper and ink. There were several guys who could have been had but the Lakers sat out.
Eric Bledsoe could have been a Laker! Seriously Buss and Kupchuk? Unbelievable...
The most important thing that fans and management need to know, do not sign big names just for the sake of the name. Be smart. Most big names are guys who are generally older and likely on the decline already. Stay away from these guys. Sign younger guys just establishing themselves with loads of potential. They are generally cheaper and have more room to grow. The following will only be guys to sign this offseason. We need stars yes, but do not overspend on old stars. Instead invest on developing guys who can become stars.
There are handful of guys that will be rumored but likely and probably shouldn't come. Such guys are Marc Gasol, Lamarcus Aldridge, Goran Dragic. Dragic is the perfect example as he is rumored to want to sign in Miami, where he was traded, or in New York/Los Angeles. The Lakers need to stay away from Dragic and Rajon Rondo. Both are a good players and both likely were hindered by roster management in Phoenix for Dragic and coaching in Dallas with Rondo, but they are nearing 30 and wants $20+ million a year. That is flat out stupid. Stay away from them. Gasol and Aldridge are likely to re-up with their own teams.
By the way, LeBron is not leaving Cleveland again. Do not even bother
Guys deserving of max deals and are young consist of Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Greg Monroe, Draymond Green and Kevin Love.
Leonard is not leaving San Antonio. They have the cap and know he is there future. Though they may try to get him to sign for less to add around him, he is not leaving.
Butler seems to be the best player in Chicago now with Derrick Rose just waiting to hurt his knees again. They especially will be reluctant to max him out, but he is worth it. His offense has developed and his dominant on defense. He is worn down thanks to coach Tom Thibodeau, but he will do that to anyone.
Monroe previously was almost guaranteed to walk away, even signing the one year tender to bet on himself. Then Stan Van Gundy finally decided that Joe Dumars was stupid and cut Josh Smith. Now Monroe is playing great with Andre Drummond and looks more and more likely to stay.
Draymond Green is really an odd case. He is a great player, but he is not an alpha dog. If he were to be a team's no. 1 option they are screwed. He could be an excellent third guy or maybe even a solid second option, but that is it. He may be deserving of a max deal, but I honestly do not think so. I believe whoever gets him will be regretting it a couple of years into the deal.
Last but not least is hometown hero Kevin Love. As much as it will be discussed, Love likely will re-sign in Cleveland to be with LeBron and Irving. The ability to win will now likely win for Love. There are doubts about it though. Despite the winning, will Love want to be Bosh 2.0 and be miscast in his current role, or does he want to go back to being the focal point? The Lakers will try their hardest to convince him. It is not a 0% but it is likely no more than 1% that Love comes back to LaLa land..
Now for realistic free agents. They may have high price tags for now, but they 1, will likely fall from the asking price, and 2, the salary cap is about to skyrocket. The cap right now is approximately $63.1 million. Next year it is expected to be around $66 to $68 million and incredibly in 2016-2017, it could soar past $90 million. The deals signed this offseason and probably even next will look like steals. Deals are about to get insane. That still does not mean deals should be given out like crazy. Dragic and Rondo should not be getting $20 million a year, but in 2016-2017, they will not hurt so much.
Guys that should be considered, no matter if they are unrestricted free agents or restricted free agents, include: Brandon Knight, Reggie Jackson, Khris Middleton, re-signing Ed Davis, Enes Kanter, Tobias Harris, Danny Green, and K.J. McDaniels.
Notice any similarities? Good developing players that are... wait for it... YOUNG! Plus they will not be commanding max deals.
Brandon Knight was developing as a point guard, but was too much of a scorer in Milwaukee for Jason Kidd so they traded him. He has a chance to be an good creator with further development and is starting to become a very sweet shooter. He is just not tapping into his potential. If a deal could be had at 4 years and $48 million, I would jump on it. Phoenix will likely match a deal, but like with all of the following players, there is no harm in trying for these guys.
Reggie Jackson has had a terrible year and likely hurt him in increasing his value from the rumored deal that was comparable to the one I just mentioned for Knight from the Thunder. He is athletic, fast and still needs to develop. He needs to improve his efficiency in scoring, but if he stays with SVG in Detroit, that likely will happen. Detroit will likely match.
Khris Middleton is a long athletic player that could be the next Shane Battier. He is developing as a shooter but is already great defensively. He likely will not command a huge deal, and the Bucks will likely match.
Ed Davis I have mentioned earlier. I would love to re-sign him and get a rotation between him and Randle. He always seems to be overlooked but hopefully as a fan of his, I hope he gets a good deal for him and the team.
Enes Kanter is peculiar. He should pretty much be a stretch 4, but he is not athletic or fast enough in my opinion to be. He is a guy that still has tons of potential and could become a good third or even second option on a team.
Tobias Harris is going to be sought after and will likely leave Orlando. He has still lots of room to grow but has become a solid scorer and rebounder. Rumored he could a max deal but I cannot see that. Look for LA and New York to at least show some good interest in him. Noticeably, he plays a position that is needed for the Lakers.
Danny Green has been developed nicely by the Spurs. He is an elite deep threat who is also a very good defender. He is sort of a more athletic Bruce Bowen. I see a deal around 4 years and $24 million. That is great for a good two-way player.
Lastly is the mystery K.J. McDaniels. A second round pick that said no to the ridiculous non-guaranteed deal by the 76ers. He is a freak athletically and great defensively, especially as a help defender. HE shows flashes on the offensive end, but he needs to shoot better. A deal will not be massive, which means the Rockets will likely match it, but with how they have been with RFAs like McDaniels and Parsons, he could slip through their fingers. He is most likely a spark off the bench, but with intense development in the offensive aspect of his game, he could become really good.
Though the future may seem bleak, things may not be as bad as they seem. That is if the Lakers are smart. Draft well and sign good deals with developing guys and not max deals with older stars. If things were to go well and the Lakers could be looking at an outside chance of the Playoffs. Will they get not it next year? Not likely in the bloodbath called the Western Conference. If they sign developmental guys, draft potential and not guys just to win now, we could get through these tough times and look much better coming into the 2016-2017 offseason.
Next year we could see a roster looking a bit like this:
1 – Mudiay/Clarkson
2 – Kobe/Hunter/Selden Jr.
3 – Harris/ Young
4 – Randle/Davis/Kelly
5 – Monroe/Black/Johnson
That likely is not a championship caliber team (especially next year) if guys do not develop further, but we could start to see a brighter future. It already infuses good young vets with developing draft guys and a couple older vets. We will see how things turn out, but if a roster was constructed like this next year, I would be very happy.
What do you say Jeff?
Change your mind a bit? I think this is smart and not crazy like typical idiot fans.
Jeff-
Well I agree that a decent draft pick and some good choices in free agency could help get you guys pointed in the right direction, I think you guys need more than just that to compete out west. Short of a Cleveland-esque offseason, I still don't see the Lakers as a team that can even compete for the 8th seed.
Like I stated earlier, the biggest piece to all of this is if you can keep your first round pick this year. I went and looked back on all the lottery odds since the 2005 draft, teams with the 4th or 5th worst record in the league have combined to miss out on the top 5 in the draft 8 out of 20 picks. Meaning almost 50% of the time the 4th or 5th worst team doesn't get a top 5 pick. That is not a good stat for the Lakers sake. As stated earlier, if the Lakers this pick it will set them back at least another year maybe even more depending on what moves that make after that pick is taken away.
Fact of the matter is, if you guys do keep your draft pick, sign a few mid-level free agents and get a somewhat healthy Kobe (does that even exist anymore?), you guys will still be floating around that 10th or 11th seed out west. The top 8 are just too strong out west for that type of team to come in and get a spot. I honestly feel it's in the Lakers best interest to suck for another year. The old saying is it's better to be the worst and get a good pick than be middle of the pack and unable to improve.
Sorry my friend, while you did make a compelling argument and bring some decent scenarios I just don't see it being enough.
Clayton –
Next season? Yeah... The Lakers are not going to make it to the playoffs. If that is the true goal for next year then it will lead us to doing what got us in this mess in the first place. That would require offering max deals to all the big guys. Go after Aldridge, who by the way is about to turn 30, Gasol and probably Dragic. Problem is, we don't have the space for that so it would require everyone taking less. Besides, the point they would have to actually leave Portland, Memphis and Miami. Dragic could come and though I don't want Dragic, he would be a massive upgrade. It would also mean we would have to trade our pick, and possibly Randle. It would be the Heat 2.0 but in a much tougher conference.
That would be stupid as hell.
My whole point was building for the future, a window that could be 10 years, not ruining it for a window that could be 2 years.
Nice looking up the stats but that is actually 40% and not 50%. Yes I am just being an ass because I am bitter. See the thing about that whole premise is if we do not get a top 5 pick, the 76ers get our pick. Call me crazy, but I cannot see the NBA okaying that. Yes I believe in conspiracy theories and cannot see the league giving the 76ers, a team they are clearly frustrated with, get two high lottery picks. Shoot, the Cavs just got 3 of the last 4 top overall picks. When it was announced I said on Twitter that the NBA was just saying sorry again for LeBron leaving. The league is not happy with Philadelphia and I just cannot see it happening. I am 95% confident we will be getting a top 4 pick.
The second issue with the protection of our pick, if we keep our pick this year and do not get a top three pick next year, it goes to the 76ers. After that pick, the Lakers pick becomes unprotected in 2017. That means they get it no matter what. If the pick is not top 3 next year and the Sixers receive the pick, the Lakers keep the pick in 2017.
If we are not going to sign good young developmental guys and start having a core to build around, I say tank it to hell. The roster is pathetic but then make it worse. Keep Kobe (kind of stuck with him really), Clarkson, Randle, Kelly, Black, D-Leaguer Jabari Brown and that is it. Do not go after even mediocre player. Pull a full Sixers. Tank for that top 3 pick. That would lead to a major talent with the five guys and Kobe's deal over. That also turns into the free agency frenzy that will be 2017.
Problem with that is, guys would have to develop and free agents would have to flock to revive the franchise.
Thus, the reason to sign developmental guys. Will it leave us in purgatory (late lottery versus the edge of playoffs) for a year or two, so be it. Many guys have been drafted in that range and have either turned into stars or into budding stars. In fact, a couple of those guys were in that range.
Like I said before, financial flexibility, place to build their brand and a good group already in place can draw free agents. Get a couple of those guys and draft well and maybe in the 2017 offseason we can draw a substantial free agent. I think that the shine has lost some luster for the Lakers, but that is not something that lasts forever.
NOW... I am not saying throw money away, I am just saying we are obviously in a bind. Likely to keep our pick this year, unless we are historically bad, we are likely to lose our pick next year. Even then, the year after that if we were to keep our next two picks, we will lose the pick no matter where it is.
The thing about the western conference right now too that people are not noticing, is the fact they are starting to get old. Let me give you the ages of the top 8 or 9 teams stars out in the west.
- Golden State – They are set. Curry, Thompson, Green, Barnes and others are still young. Bogut is injury prone and starting to get up there, will be 31 next year. Iguodala is already 31. Though Livingston is not a star, he does have a decent sized deal and will turn 30 this year. So they are set for years, but they will soon lose guys to age.
- Memphis – They are already seeing their window close. Conley is young enough at 27, and they have some other decent players on the roster that could be developed that are young but their other stars are aging. Zach Randolph will be 34 this year, while Gasol just turned 30. Tony Allen is 33. Without Conley, Gasol and Randolph, their talent drops way off in my opinion. There could be a slide soon, especially if Gasol actually does leave.
- Portland – As stated already, LaMarcus Aldridge will turn 30 this year. That is their main star that is older. Robin Lopez is about to turn 27. Afflalo could be leaving and he will be 30 next year anyways. Wesley Matthews could have cashed in, but he just tore his Achilles and he will be 29 later this year. Nicolas Batum is 26 but damn he has looked bad this year. Debatable he is even a starter, much less a star. Only other guy that is in star territory is Damian Lillard, who is still only 24. They are good, but how good? Portland could slide. If Aldridge bolts, expect a huge drop in the standing. Despite some other young guys who could develop but are not likely stars.
- Houston – Harden, 25 currently, and that's it. It is actually amazing they are this good. If Dwight Howard, 30 next season, does not return due to health, Harden is screwed. It is even evident that Howard is not the superstar he used to be. He is still a star, but not a top guy in the league anymore. They lost Parsons in free agency so there goes a huge, young piece. Patrick Beverley is a good player, but by no means a star at the age of 27 next season. Terrence Jones is only 23, but people seem to think this is what he is. A good player but likely not a star. Donatas Motiejunas will turn 25 next season, but he is not a star. K.J. McDaniels is only 22, but he is raw as stated before. In all reality, if Harden goes down, this team crumples. Some good players, but no one that are true cornerstones of a franchise.
- Dallas – Their longtime franchise player, Dirk, is 36 and will turn 37 after the season. His time is counting down. Parsons is a good young player at 26. Monta Ellis could leave after the season, but he will be 30 next year. Rondo could re-up and he is 28 with injury and character issues. And.. well that's about it for debatable stars for the Mavericks. Maybe Tyson Chandler, but he is as 32. No Amar'e is not a star so who cares and his deal is up after the year. If Dirk retires at the end of his deal in 2 more years, they could fall quick. Shoot, if Ellis and Rondo leave they could fall quick.
- Clippers – Here is an interesting team. Blake Griffin just turned 26, but he has a history of injuries. He was a monster last year, but has turned into a jump shooter and his numbers have decreased. Still a superstar, but just something to think about. Chris Paul will turn 30 this season. He is amazing, but he has torn an ACL already. He is over it, but could lead to issues as he ages. DeAndre Jordan is having another contract year and will turn 27 this year. He could bolt the Clippers. J.J. Redick will turn 31 in June. After the top 4, the team drops in talent. Jamal Crawford is a baller, but he is aging and strictly a bench guy. Everyone else is pretty replaceable. Even Spencer Hawes, 27, who just signed a deal last offseason and coach's son, Austin Rivers, 22. Seriously, after Paul, Redick, Griffin and Jordan, the team is pretty poor.
- San Antonio – Damn they are old. Duncan, will be 39 this year. Parker, will be 33, but has so many miles on his legs. He has been in the NBA for already 13 years, and he is already showing signs of decline. Ginobili, 37. They may have won last year, but they are only the seventh seed this year. Yes they have Kawhi but Danny Green is a free agent, Patty Mills will be 27 and a bench guy, and Tiago Splitter is already 30 too. Unless Duncan is an alien like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, the Spurs days as contenders could soon be over.
- This is up for grabs between New Orleans and Oklahoma City. Phoenix was in it but they have roster construction issues and as of this moment, two and a half games behind OKC and NO for the eighth seed with 16 games left, so we will disregard them at the moment.
New Orleans – Anthony Davis is their star. He is probably the NBA's best player already and is only 22. Jrue Holiday is only 24. Ryan Anderson will turn 27 this year. Those are their three best players. Eric Gordon is an injury waiting to happen and is 27. he is a soon to be free agent, if not this year, then next. Tyreke Evans is 25, but he has proven he is no star. Omer Asik is 28 and is free agent this year. Davis is their future, but rest of their roster is just so-so. There bench is pathetic and their defensive center could be gone. Future is in purgatory as well for now. They also lose picks if they don't meet the protections in the future. Pray for Davis.
Oklahoma City – In theory they are set. Durant is only 26 but there are serious rumors he could leave in 2017. Russell Westbrook is 26 as well and could leave the following year. Their other “star” is Serge Ibaka who just underwent a mysterious knee surgery and last year deal with other leg issues. If he is my third star, I am feeling nervous. They have great talent around them in Dion Waiters (not a likely star) 23, Mitch McGary is soon to be 23, impending free agent Enes Kanter will be turning 23 in a couple months, Perry Jones is only 24, and Steven Adams is 22.
Not every player on every team was listed, but that was because not every player is a star.
After the age rundown, many good teams have impending free agents, impending free agents that are about to be 30 or even older, and cornerstones that are close to retirement. I saw an article that I believe was on ESPN a few weeks ago that was talking about just this situation. They were trying to say the east could be on the rise, which is not the case, but for my case, it is showing the west is more volatile than many thinks.
The Lakers are likely a few years away from just the playoff picture, and likely a few years from title contention even then, but my point is, that our outlook is not as bleak.
Clearly your Celtics appear to be ahead of the Lakers in terms of their rebuilding, but do you still think the future is as pathetic as you once thought?
Do you think in say two or three years, the Lakers could be playoff contenders? Draft well, sign developmental guys with a max guy thrown in there? Remember, Kobe's deal is off the books after next year leading to a ton of cap space with the cap about to explode. Two or three years from playoffs or four or five? Despite being a Celtics fan, what would you recommend the Lakers do if you were 1. a fan and 2. upper Lakers management?
Jeff-
Obviously anything can happen, no one is mistaking the Wizards for a contender (although they do have a nice playoff team) but if KD decides to head home and join John Wall and Beal that is an automatic favorite to get to the ECF every year for the foreseeable future.
Who knows, maybe it was Anthony Davis' childhood dream to play for the Milwaukee Bucks and his next chance he goes there and suddenly they are a top 5 team in the East.
All that is so unforecastable that it's hard to really say any team will suck for an extended period of time, because as LBJ proved one choice can completely change the landscape of an entire conference.
If I were a Lakers fan/upper management I would say start with the bigs. I would go after Kevin Love hard this summer with the lure of teaming up with UCLA alum Russell Westbrook in the future. If he doesn't work out you have Paul Millsap, Thad Young, and Tristan Thompson at the next tier that you can attack.
Then look at Centers. Deandre Jordan is out there and Hibbert (who I personally like) has a player option (unlikely he's available but keep an eye on him). If you could get 1 guy from each of those 2 positions I listed that's a good start.
That's personally how I would attack free agency and use the draft to work on the wings.
After all of that, I still say the Lakers are about four to five years away.
Clayton –
I agree, the outlook of the league can change in a blink of an eye. What if The Knicks pull a coup and land Gasol, Knight and others? They could go from worst to very good quickly.
I agree about most of the guys to go after. Love is a must. We might not land him, but you have to go after him. I like Millsap, but I feel his place is in the east, as well with Thad Young. Thompson is an intriguing guy, but I may prefer Randle.
Landing Jordan would be huge. He is a great defender and rebounder. Just what the Lakers need. He really doesn’t even need his number called on offense either. Hibbert I doubt opts out, but he resurrected himself after looking pathetic at the end of last year. He is still a great defender down low and solid elsewhere. You can throw Monroe into the mix there as well. If a defender is the type that is desired, Asik will likely be available as well. Some options out there.
The goal in my opinion is to build the front court via free agency. Be smart obviously, but get an established big and then go after the point guard and back court in the draft. If Mudiay is gone by our pick and Towns is available you have to take him. Towns and Randle would be great in a few years.
That leaves the problem of point guard if Mudiay is gone. Will Russell be available? Do you overpay for Dragic or Rondo? I would pick Russell over those two for the future, or sign Brandon Knight.
You are right though, and Lakers fans who are stupid and don’t want to rebuild will be mad but, this is not a quick turnaround.
Side note: how stupid are Lakers fans? They say they don’t want to rebuild, because “We are the Lakers and that is not how we do things.” Bull crap. We didn’t draft Kobe but we traded for him before he could even take the court for the Hornets. We drafted Magic, James Worthy, A.C. Green, Andrew Bynum (I know, I know, but we won 2 titles with him) and others. This is exactly what we do. Sure we signed Shaq, but that was one of the last big time names we signed. We traded for Gasol, more like robbed Memphis at gunpoint, with valuable assets that were, wait for it… FROM THE FREAKING DRAFT! Unfortunately Marc Gasol was included but we won two titles with Pau.
Point is, idiot fans need to shut the hell up and recognize this is how you win. You don’t sign everyone in free agency. You have to have assets in the first place. Stop focusing on the Heat when they signed Bosh and LeBron, they already had Wade. They didn't all leave and go to Minnesota or Charlotte. This is how it is done. Fans are idiots…
I say this is likely at minimum, a three year process, more likely the four or five you said unless max guys take less and we don’t trade away valuable young assets. Even then, the next decade should be considered. Hopefully we follow a plan like this for the sake of the next decade. Go on Lakers tank to win.
