4 Game Review Of Stat Predictions

Well we are a quarter of the way through the season, so what better to do than look back at our preseason Stat Leaders Predictions post and see if we are on pace or way off.

Passing

Yards

Jeff’s pick- Andrew Luck 4,900 yards

Clayton’s pick- Andrew Luck 5,100 yards

We both picked Andrew Luck here with slightly different numbers. Luck got off to a slow start and then got injured and missed Week 4. He is currently on pace for 4,106 yards. We have to imagine he will pick it up and get going but he may be too far behind to get close to our predicted numbers and the league leader Tom Brady who is on pace for a record shattering 5,931 yards.

Touchdowns

Jeff’s pick- Aaron Rodgers 46 TD’s

Clayton’s pick- Ben Roethlisberger 42 TD’s

Jeff picked Aaron Rodgers to lead the league and stuck with his pick even when Jordy Nelson went down. Rodgers is currently on pace for 44 TD’s, which is slightly behind Tom Brady’s pace of 48 TD’s.

Clayton picked Ben Roethlisberger who he admitted was a risky pick. Granted the injury basically ensured this pick won’t be correct, it’s fair to note that Ben was on a pace for a measly 27 TD’s before the injury.

Rushing

Yards

Jeff’s pick- Lesean McCoy 1,400 yards

Clayton’s pick- Eddie Lacy 1,500 yards

Jeff picked Lesean McCoy who seemed like a good bet given Rex Ryan’s run heavy scheme. However, similar to Big Ben, an injury early on seems to have put a damper on this prediction. He came into the season nursing a hammy injury but still was expected to produce. McCoy is currently on pace for 730 yards if he returns in Week 5, which is about half of what the league leader Chris Ivory is on pace for.

Clayton went with the big man Eddie Lacy. Lacy seems to defy nature with his size and foot work on the field. I really liked this pick for Clayton. Eddie Lacy too is a guy struggling with an injury as we saw him get only 3 carries due to an ankle injury and then follow it with only 10 carries in Week’s 2 and 3. Currently he is on pace for 920 yards which puts him well behind the leader Chris Ivory who is on pace for 1,570 yards.

Touchdowns

Jeff’s pick- Adrian Peterson 14 TD’s

Clayton’s pick- Marshawn Lynch 14 TD’s

Jeff was big on Adrian Peterson coming into the year and AP has looked very good so far. AP Is slightly behind the pace with 12 TD’s but is getting better each week. He will need a strong middle section of the season to reach 14. It’s hard to say he won’t catch the current leader Devonta Freeman who is on pace for 28 TD’s because I think it’s easy to assume his pace will slow down tremendously.

Clayton went with Marshawn much to the opposition of Jeff. Clayton wasn’t wrong in assuming beast mode will be beast mode but with injury issues and Jimmy Graham basically doing nothing to help the run game this one is looking tough. Marshawn has yet to score a TD this year and it’s unclear if he is coming back for Week 5 just yet.

Receiving

Receptions

Jeff’s pick- Demaryius Thomas 125 receptions

Clayton’s pick- Antonio Brown 130 receptions

Jeff went with Demaryius Thomas here and he hasn’t disappointed. He is currently slightly ahead of Jeff’s prediction and is on pace for 132 catches. He should continue to see heavy targets and keep this number rising and he will need it to catch current leader, Julio Jones, who is on pace for 152 receptions even after sitting the entire 2nd half of his Week 4 matchup against Houston.

Clayton stuck with last years leader Antonio Brown to repeat. While the injury to Big Ben definitely seems to make this prediction a tough one now it still could happen. AB is currently on pace for 136 receptions.

Yards

Jeff’s pick- Julio Jones 1,600 yards

Clayton’s pick- Julio Jones 1,650 yards

Both guys went with Julio here with very close predictions. Julio is currently on pace for 1,912 yards, which as stated before is with him sitting an entire half in a blowout. This pace should be much higher if not for the Texans laying an egg and letting Quinn rest his work horse. He is currently on the same pace as Antonio Brown who as we stated earlier is playing with Mike Vick as QB for the next few weeks,

Touchdowns

Jeff’s pick- Dez Bryant 14 TD’s

Clayton’s pick- Rob Gronkowski 16 TD’s

Jeff finally put his hatred for Dez Bryant aside and picked him here and what happens? Dez breaks a bone in his foot and is going to miss anywhere from a quarter of the season to about half the season. Dez had 0 TD’s in his 1 partial game so it’s hard to really break this one down.

Meanwhile Clayton went with a tight end here to lead the league in TD’s, but not just any tight end, we are talking about Gronk here. Gronk rewarded Clayton with 3 TD’s in the first game of the season and had Clayton sitting nicely with this pick. Gronk is currently on pace for a monster 21 TD’s which puts him slightly ahead of Larry FItzgerald’s 20 TD pace.

Defense

Tackles

Jeff’s pick- Luke Kuechly 165 tackles

Clayton’s pick-Lavonte David 170 tacklers

Jeff picked the tackling machine Luke kuechly to keep his reign of terror alive, however Kuechly suffered a concussion in the first game of the season and hasn’t seen the field since.

Clayton went with Lavonte David who has racked up 430 tackles in his first 3 seasons. He is having a good year thus far and is on pace for 132 tackles but he is gonna need a strong stretch to catch D’Qwell Jackson who is on a blistering pace looking at 188 tackles for the season.

Sacks

Jeff’s pick- Justin Houston 18.5 sacks

Clayton’s pick- Justin Houston 19 sacks

We both went with the sack artist Justin Houston here. He started off with 3 sacks in his first 2 games but has been held without a sack the last 2 weeks. He is currently on pace for a disappointing (for him) 12 sacks, but I have to believe he will turn it on and put pressure on the ageless Demarcus Ware who is on pace for 18 sacks.

Interceptions

Jeff’s pick- Vontae Davis 8 INT’s

Clayton’s pick- Desmond Trufant 7 INT’s

Jeff went with Vontae Davis to really take advantage of his limited targets and snag 9 INT’s however he currently has 0 picks through 4 games so it is not looking good for him.

Clayton surprised Jeff with this one and took Trufant from Atlanta. The risk here is Trufant has emerged as the next true shutdown corner and won’t see many throws his way and that has been the theme this year as Trufant has 0 picks but saw an Eli Manning team that didn’t target him once and many other QB’s shy away from his man all season. The current leader Josh Norman is on a blistering pace of 1 pick per game which we have to assume will slow down as QB’s fear his ball hawking skills and look elsewhere.

NFL Stats Leaders: 2015

With the NFL season fast approaching I thought we would have some fun and predict the stat leaders for each individual category.

Clayton made the picks this time through, and Jeff explained the choices.

View image | gettyimages.com
Passing

Yards- Andrew Luck 5,100 yards, Last year- 4,761 yards (3rd)

Andrew Luck is a safe bet here, especially with the recent injury to Jordy Nelson. Luck will have more than enough weapons this year and with Frank Gore forcing defenses to finally respect the run Luck should be able to hit the 5k mark.

Touchdowns- Ben Roethlisberger 42 TD’s, Last year- 32 TD’s (7th)

This is an interesting one for me, Big Ben is definitely a very good QB, but he has only thrown for more than 30 TD’s twice in his career and each time he only reached 32. 42 is a lofty goal here but with AB getting better every year and Martavis Bryant looking like a good WR2 he will definitely have the talent around him. I feel more confident in him duplicating his 32 TD mark from last year than I do about him topping 40 this year.

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

Rushing

Yards- Eddie Lacy 1,500 yards, Last year- 1,139 yards (7th)

Eddie Lacy is a top 5 RB if you ask me, and with Nelson going down for the year I think he will get even more carries this year as Green Bay tries to balance out the offense and keep defenses honest. Lacy is a freight train when he gets going and he will absolutely punish defenders this year. Before Nelson went out I would’ve put Lacy at about 1,300 yards but now I think 1,500 is just about right for him.

Touchdowns- Marshawn Lynch 14 TD’s, Last year - 13 TD’s (T-1st)

Lynch will still get his touches, but with the addition of Jimmy Graham I see Lynch losing multiple opportunities at the goal line. Lynch had his fewest carries since 2010 last year but had a career high in TD’s, I don’t see that being the case this year and I think we see Lynch fail to top the 10 TD mark and retire in the offseason.

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

Receiving

Receptions- Antonio Brown 130 catches, Last year- 129 catches (1st)

With Leveon Bell missing the first 2 games of the year I see AB getting a hefty amount of targets to start the year. Brown was able to grab 129 ;passes last year on 181 targets, I feel like he will come very close to those numbers again this year. I don’t see him getting as many yards this year but he will still get the catches. I have never been much of a believer in AB but I am slowly starting to change my mind on him.

Yards- Julio Jones 1,650 yards, Last year- 1,593 yards (3rd)

JULIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!! Where do I start? Julio lead the league in yards per game last year, only reason he didn’t lead the league in yards was because he missed a game. If he can stay healthy all year (which is a BIG if) then he should put up monster numbers. Julio had almost the same amount of yards as Antonio Brown but did it in 1 less game and 25 less catches. With the addition of rookie back Tevin Coleman the Falcons finally can balance out the offense, but at the end of the day Julio is still the go to guy and will benefit from the defenses need to account for the run game.

Touchdowns- Rob Gronkowski 16 TD’s, Last year- 12 TDs (T- 4th)

Gronk is an absolute machine…. Unfortunately, he has had some major injury concerns. He has missed 15 games over the past 3 years. Brady should be motivated to punish the league as a whole for what happened to him this offseason and Gronk should be the main beneficiary of the Wrath of Brady. If Gronk stays healthy for the full year he should be a real threat to lead the league in Touchdowns.

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

Defense

Tackles- Lavonte David 170 tackles, Last year- 146 tackles (3rd)

Lavonte David has averaged 145.5 tackles over the last 2 seasons and he seems to be getting better every year. 170 is definitely a lofty goal here but if anybody can do it, David is the guy. The Bucs should be playing from behind a lot this year which means teams will be spending the entire 2nd half running the ball which definitely gives David the chance for a lot of tackles. I personally think Kuechly leads the league again this year but I don’t even see him reaching the 170 mark.

Sacks- Justin Houston 19 sacks, Last year- 22 sacks (1st)

Justin Houston is another former Bulldog so I am biased towards him, but for good reason. He was an unstoppable force last year and shouldn’t miss a beat this year. Clayton and I both agree he will lead the league and have around the same amount of sacks for him. I feel he will see a slight dip from last years freakish numbers but he will still terrorize offenses and wreak havoc on the AFC west.

Interceptions- Desmond Trufant 7 INTs, Last year- 3 INTs (T-27th)

I appreciate the confidence from Clayton here for my boy Tru, but he is a pure shut down corner and the best player in our secondary. He will suffer the same fate as Nnamdi, Revis, and Sherman have before him meaning QB’s will shy away from him and not throw his way very often. With rookie Jalen Collins and fellow draft mate Robert Alford playing opposite Trufant I see QB’s “picking” on them a lot this year. Trufant will probably get about 3 or 4 picks this year, due to him having issues hanging on to catches and also the previously mentioned lack of passes that will get thrown his way.

NFL Rookie Stats Leaders 2015 Part 2

We are so close to the beginning of the season and we are finally getting to see what rosters and depth charts will look like. A couple of weeks ago Jeff made his predictions, and now it is Clayton's turn. Some picks are the same, some different, with a surprise or two. Oh yeah, and added a stat to the QB's (here's a hint: I am not high on Winston, just his weapons are better).

As done with the NFL stat leaders piece, Clayton made the picks, while Jeff tries to explain the choices.

View image | gettyimages.com

Passing

Yards- Jameis WInston - TB - 3,100 yards (1st overall pick)

It’s basically a 2 man race at QB this year (unless you think Bryce Petty has a chance in NY) and frankly neither guy makes me feel good. Winston just has the better weapons which will ultimately make his transition to the NFL a bit smoother. He won’t come without his mistakes, but he should be able to put up 3,100 yards as long as Evans and Jackson stay healthy and the Bucs throw it enough which they should considering they will be trailing in most games.

Touchdowns- Jameis Winston - TB - 18 TD’s (1st overall pick)

With two receivers standing at 6’5” it’s safe to say there will be a lot of goal line fades for Winston which should give him a reasonable shot at beating out Mariota in the TD category as well. 18 is a fair estimate for Jameis in his rookie season.

Interceptions - Jameis Winston - TB - 27 Ints (1st overall pick)

Clayton doesn’t like Winston, and neither do I, but Clayton has said from day 1 he thinks Winston will put up some disgustingly bad INT numbers this year. I’m not sure if I see 27 happening but he could get the elusive more INT’s than TD’s honor this year.

View image | gettyimages.com

Rushing

Yards- Melvin Gordon - SD - 1,150 yards (15th overall pick)

I’m not big on Gordon (and I don’t think Clayton is either) but he will probably get the most touches of any rookie, depending on the health of Gurley down in STL. I have always thought Gordon was just another college back that benefited from a system and wouldn’t cut it in the NFL. I still believe that but he is going to a team where he can be the #1 back right out of the gate and should get plenty of touches. Although, I hate to admit it, I think 1,150 yards this season is very doable.

Touchdowns- Todd Gurley - STL - 8 TDs (10th overall pick)

My favorite player of the draft, the pride and joy of my Bulldogs, TODD GURLEY! I have not hidden my love for Gurley and I can’t help but think my endless talking about him for the last year straight might have impacted this decision just a little bit. Clayton still believes he won’t be back week 1, but I feel he could miss the first 3 games and still lead all rookies in any rushing category. This man is the future of running backs and will be a beast this year and for years to come.

View image | gettyimages.com

Receiving

Receptions- Amari Cooper - OAK  - 85 catches (4th overall pick)

Amari Cooper is THE GUY for David Carr in Oakland immediately and that should bode well for his stats this year. Cooper will get plenty of targets, it’s just a matter of how many he is able to haul in. He has great hands and exceptional route running skills, but for a rookie coming straight into the league to presumably be facing weekly double teams is a bit of a worry.

Yards- Amari Cooper - OAK - 1,300 yards (4th overall pick)

Cooper should put up huge numbers… however 1,300 yard would have put Cooper in the top 10 for yards last year and I think that is a bit much. As I previously stated I think Cooper is going to get a lot of looks, but he will also be getting a lot of attention from defenses. I think this will result in plenty of catches but a lot of situations where he will make the catch and be immediately brought down.

Touchdowns- DeVante Parker - MIA - 10 TD’s (14th overall pick)

Clayton and I both agree on this selection but he has Parker pulling down 1 more TD than I do. If Mike Wallace can get 10 TD’s in the Dolphins offense last year I see no reason why Parker can’t do the same thing (especially with Wallace now gone). Parker could be a hit or miss this season. I think he will either show up big time for Miami or flame out and be staring down a lot of criticism going into his second year.

View image | gettyimages.com

Defense

Tackles- Landon Collins - NYG - 110 tackles (33rd overall pick)

Not really sure how I feel about this pick by Clayton here. I like Landon Collins but not sure he will have this type of impact in his rookie year. I think Collins lands somewhere in the 70-80 tackle range for the Giants this year. I honestly was surprised to see this name pop up here for Clayton. No doubt Collins will get plenty of snaps, but I have seen him blow some easy coverages and being overly aggressive anticipating a run and leaving himself out of position.I think eventually Collins will be a solid pro player but he will definitely have some growing pains this year.

Sacks- Hau'oli Kikaha - NO -  9 sacks (44th overall pick)

This was definitely a shocker for me. He is definitely a pure pass rusher but I am not sure he will be on the field enough to reach this mark. He also has had some injuries in the past and that could factor into his production this year as well. With the departure of Junior Gallette the Saints definitely have a need to fill at pass rush but I am not sure Kikaha fills that void just yet. I see about 4 or 5 sacks being the mark here in his rookie season.

Interceptions- Marcus Peters - KC - 4 INT’s (18th overall pick)

Peters was my pick as well, but I was expecting this one from Clayton given his Chiefs fandom. Peters should get plenty of playtime to start the season and if he can prove himself early he can easily get 4 INT’s as he will be tested early and often. It helps that the Chiefs face Peyton and Rivers twice a year each as those two will definitely test the rookie and give him some chances to make a play.

5 Bold Predictions for the 2015 NFL Season

View image | gettyimages.com 

Jeremy Maclin 8 TD’s (no chiefs WR had a TD catch last year)

I know what you are saying… “Maclin had 10 TD’s last year, how is 8 this year a bold prediction”. Considering the fact that he is going from the Eagles fast paced offense to a Chiefs team that didn’t see a single TD pass thrown to a wide receiver last year, ya I would say it’s a bold prediction. Maclin brings a dynamic to this offense that they haven’t had in a while.

Obviously, the big issue here is Alex Smith, who seems to be unable to throw the ball further than 8 yards. If Smith can air it out just a little bit, Maclin should be able to see the end zone a few times. Travis Kelce will get most of the red zone targets so Maclin will either have to be a YAC monster or Alex Smith will have to learn how to put some zip on the ball.

The one thing this prediction has going for it is that the Chiefs don’t really have another viable option at wide receiver which makes Maclin the obvious go to guy for Smith. This prediction will either be spot on or way off. Maclin could finish the year with 3 TD’s or less if history repeats itself.

View image | gettyimages.com

Demarco Murray will rush for under 1,250 yards (lead league in rushing last year with 1,845 yards)

Demarco Murray had a great year last year, I will give him that, but let’s not act like the majority of the credit doesn’t go to that stud offensive line. Demarco Murray averaged almost 2.5 yards before contact last season, which he won’t have the luxury of in Philadelphia.

Another thing to factor in is the fact that last year was the only time in his 4 year career that Murray played all 16 games. I feel confident in saying he will miss at least 1 or more games this year, couple that with the extra contact he will receive without the beast of a line in Dallas and you have the recipe for some extra wear and tear.

We also have the “370 curse” of any running back who goes over 370 carries falling off after that. While Murray has had a pretty impressing yards per carry average in his career I don’t see him duplicating or even coming close to his production of last year.

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

Falcons will have a 1,000 yard rusher for first time since Michael Turner in 2011

The signing of Steven Jackson  ended up being a let down (as I predicted) and the Falcons run game has been a joke. Even Michael Turner’s last year in ATL was a disappointment as he failed to top the 1k mark, setting off the streak of some pretty bad years of rushing production. Luckily, Matt Ryan has had the Falcons passing game flying high, but the run game has held them back.

With the departure of Steven Jackson, came the arrival of rookie burner Tevin Coleman. Devonta Freeman was slated to be the lead back but Coleman came in and quickly made a competition out of it.

Shanahan has implemented a zone blocking scheme and the O-line looks to be slightly better than last year. The personnel they have seems more suited for the zone blocking so I think that will have a major impact this year.

Shanahan has also vowed to “balance out” the pass heavy Falcons offense which gives Tevin Coleman (who I expect to get the bulk of the carries by midseason) a very real shot at 1k.

View image | gettyimages.com

Odell Beckham Jr. will have the same or less stats in a full year than he did in 12 games last year (91 catches, 1,305 yards, 12 TD’s)

Don’t get me wrong I think Odell is a bright young star in the league and will be a top WR for years to come. However, the pace he was on last year just will not be duplicated. If ODB were to play at the same pace for a full season (which people seem to think will be his norm) his stats for this season will be 121 catches, 1,740 yards, and 16 TD’s.

If you think he will repeat that production or even close to it you really have to be drinking the proverbial Kool-Aid. I think ODB will most likely end up with the same or slightly less stats this coming year for a full 16 game season. Victor Cruz will be back which will give Eli another target which will take away from Odell’s overall targets.

I think Odell will most likely reach 90+ catches again but he won’t top 1,300 yards and I don’t think he even cracks the double digit TD mark.

View image | gettyimages.com

View image | gettyimages.com

Offensive and Defensive ROY winners will both be players not drafted in the 1st round for the first time since Anthony Thomas and Kendrell Bell accomplished it in 2001

It’s been 14 years since this specific situation has happened. Every year since 2001 at least 1 of the ROY winners was drafted in the 1st round, and most of the time both Offensive and Defensive guys were 1st rounders. This is the year the streak is broken.

On the offensive side of the ball there are plenty of guys taken outside of the 1st round that are candidates. Obviously, there are 1st rounders that will be the favorites and will produce but I feel confident in TJ Yeldon, Dorial Green-Beckham, Maxx Williams, and Ameer Abdullah as legit contenders for the ROY crown.

On the defensive side there is plenty of 1st round talent that fell into the 2nd round. My favorites are Mario Edwards Jr, Eric Kendricks, and Randy Gregory. The 1st round saw plenty of big time defensive players taken so this one will definitely be tough to call.