NBA Finals

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Jeff-

Sadly we are a mere 4-7 games away from the close of the NBA season. While there were no surprises in the conference finals, the dominance displayed by the Warriors and the Cavaliers was impressive. Last round I picked the Warriors in 6 while Clayton correctly picked them in 5. On the other side I had the Cavs winning in 5 while Clayton had the Cavs in 6,in the end the series finished in a sweep for Cleveland. This has been a tough week with no basketball so lets jump right in to the Finals preview.

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Warriors (1) vs Cavaliers (2)

This should be a very fun series to watch. Steph is absolutely locked in and Lebron seems determined to do whatever it takes to lead his team to a title. I have to be honest, as I type this article I still don’t know what my prediction will be. I’m just going to type it out and hope by the end I have convinced myself one way or the other.

Let’s start with the Cavaliers strengths in this series. Clearly Lebron is the Cavs big advantage (shocker I know) but regardless of what Warriors fans want to believe they don’t have anybody on their roster that can match Lebron and contain him. Green, Barnes, and Iguodala will have to team up to even make a dent in Bron’s game. Lebron could duplicate his ECF output with a 30, 10, and 10 stat line in the finals.

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Another potential x-factor in this series will be the play of Tristan Thompson. He has been a monster since the Kevin Love injury and he could really give the Cavaliers what they need to outduel the Warriors. Obviously Kyrie will play an important role in this series but I feel the output of Thompson could be the deciding factor.

On the other side the health of Klay Thompson will be a huge storyline come Game 1. He suffered what appeared to be a concussion in the closing minutes of the WCF but he should be fine after this extended time off. However, if he still has lingering issues we could quickly see the Warriors home court advantage get taken away.

The matchup of Bogut vs Mozgov should be an interesting one as both provide similar things for their respective teams. I give the edge to Mozgov in this one, simply because he seems to be the more active guy right now and should out work Bogut.

I think we are in for a back and forth series the will see many changes in momentum but in the end, I think Lebron is too motivated and too hungry to let this title slip through his fingers.

Result: Cavs in 6

MVP: Lebron James (WHAT?!?!?!)

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Clayton -

Sadly enough, as a Lakers fan I have already started looking forward to the Draft and Free Agency. So much is going on in my head that I can not wait to write about there.

In the mean time, the Warriors have continued on the war path of destroying the grueling West, while the Cavs tore through the pathetic East, as they should have. Will LeBron continue to on making people he is having a great playoffs, when in fact he has been highly inefficient, and give Cleveland their first championship in decades? Or will the 2015 MVP, Steph Curry, continue to shoot lights out and blow a hole in the roof of Oracle Arena? Let’s take a look.

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Warriors (1) vs Cavaliers (2)

Deciding this series is not as difficult for me as it was for Jeff. There are too many questions that I have for one of these teams and despite their savior, it kills them in the end. The Cavaliers are losing this series.

First off, the Cavs may have had the easiest road to the Finals in some time.

The Hawks were decimated by injury, and though I like them, were probably not a true championship contender. Carroll’s injury was huge, but he is not the defender of any of that the Warriors possess. Korver injury was a killer. Finally, Atlanta’s frontcourt, Horford and Millsap, were both dealing with injuries. Rest of the squad is so inconsistent, it was really no surprise they got swept.

The Bulls were such a poor match up, despite what some people thought. Three of their four frontcourt guys were injured and ineffective. Mirotic, Gasol and Noah were all hobbled, and Gibson seemed off to me, not to mention he was hot headed. This team is likely to be blown up. Rose is not what most people think he is, and Brooks just flat out disappeared. Butler did ok, but he had insufficient help from rest of the roster.

Though we do have a Celtics fan here at Tank to Win, let’s not even start. That series was a sweep from the beginning.

The Cavs are just a poor match up. They do not have Love or Varejao. Mike Miller, James Jones, Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood and Kendrick Perkins are all way below average players now.  In reality, this team is James, Irving (if he is healthy, so he may just be a half of a player), the unpredictable J.R. Smith, Shumpert who lacks offensively, Thompson and Mozgov, who do not play well together. So a Finals team that has a 5 or 6 man rotation? Reminds me of the 2011 Miami Heat. Depth rarely gets noticed in the Finals, but it is huge. The Cavs just have none of it.

If I am Steve Kerr, I do what people used to do to Orlando when Dwight was still there, let LeBron have his numbers to an extent. Give him the jump shot, where he is shooting a pathetic 29%. Sure he will drive, but the Warriors will not just let him get an And 1, they will be sure to make him feel it. LeBron could have some great numbers, but his jump shot will be his downfall, plus his ISO will not be as effective. It already was not great against the Hawks. If you turn LeBron into a volume scorer, it just makes things easier. His efficiency and advanced numbers have already shown James has not been up to his standards. Things will not be as easy as the media and Jeff think.

Tristan Thompson sure had a couple good series… against a team one team that was hobbled due to their insane regular season minutes and then versus an undersized frontcourt who was also hurt… but by no means was he a beast. He will be a factor, but he will not be having the series he has been having. But LeBron endorses him so everyone thinks he is a developing star apparently. Plus, teaming Thompson and Mozgov has been absolutely terrible. They do not fit well together, clogging up the lane and neither have any amount of ability to truly stretch a defense. They have had a good size advantage, creating great offensive rebound numbers, but the Warriors have the size and strength to match up and overwhelm the two.

Shumpert may shut down Klay, but no way he shuts down Curry. J.R. Smith may have a good game or two, then again he is so mercurial, he may be a zero

The real key for the Cavs is Kyrie. Is he healthy? Will he trust that knee? So much is in question here.

This Cavs team is not historically good and if the Eastern conference wasn’t so pathetic, would they have even made the Finals? Everyone keeps saying LeBron is taking them to the promised land, but he has actually been inefficient despite the numbers and not even close to his normal numbers. Would this Cavs team have beaten the Miami Heat last year? That is probably a huge no. Sorry, but Cleveland will have to continue to wait to have a championship come their way.

So why is it a forgone conclusion that the Cavs will win? Because of LeBron? Sorry, but he lost last year. Just because you have the best player does not mean you have the best team. Plus it was proven that point was proven last year.

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This Warriors team may be just as good as the Spurs last year and may be even better. Curry may not be the best player in the league, but he sure has had a huge year, and yes Houston fans, he was the real MVP (though Anthony Davis had a better argument in my opinion compared to Harden). They are historically good so I think it is safe to say they are likely better than the Spurs last year.

I am going to go with the team that was rated no. 1 on offense and defense. They have been the best team with the League MVP and will continue their domination. They may have some jitters in Game 1 and may even lose it at home, but I still think this series ends pretty quickly.

Jeff says the Warriors defenders will not be able to hold him, but the real issue here, is that they have multiple guys to throw at him. Celtics really did not have anyone to control him. Bulls had Butler and that was it. Atlanta only had Carroll, but funny enough Korver had LeBron ISO in Game 1 I believe and LeBron was absolutely, and hilariously inefficient. The fact that the Warriors can just have so many guys to throw against LeBron means he will not be able to wear down a team’s solo guy to defend him. Will they stop him? Unlikely, but they will likely make him inefficient and he will not have an easy time.

The Warriors just have too many weapons, who all are at least solid to better on defense. Curry is clearly a superstar and though he is just nuts at shooting, he is incredibly smart and has drastically improved his defense. There really has just been so much written about him, it truly is hard to find something that isn’t new. Who guards him? Shumpert? No way. Kyrie? Laughable. It would be interesting to have LeBron cover him, but doubt we see that.

Klay is not as good as most think, but he sure is a great player. His shot has been missing as of late, but his defense has been stellar. Harrison looked very good and may have been the determining factor in Game 5, where it turned into the Barnes game. Bogut has actually had very low scoring numbers, but his defense at the rim has been phenomenal.

Who guards Draymond Green? Thompson doesn’t have the feet for it. LeBron? Possibly, but the Cavs likely will not go that route. Not to mention, Green will be gobbling up those rebounds that Thompson and everyone else thinks he will be getting.

One of the biggest keys that some may not even be thinking about is the crazy depth the Warriors have compared to the Cavs. Shaun Livingston, Andre Igoudala, Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa, and oh yeah, Marreese Speights just got cleared to play in the Finals after missing the last few weeks due to injury. That is leaving out last years starter, David Lee. The Cavs go 6 or so deep, but the Warriors have at least 10.

They have so much depth, that the Cavs will need Delladova to hurt some more guys… oh wait… he didn’t mean to do that right? When you are relying on a guy like Delladova to be more than a 7th or 8th man, youre depth is meh. Warriors are far superior in this category.

All of this made is pretty easy for me. The King does not claim his crown for a second season in a row.

Results: Warriors in 5

Finals MVP: The League MVP, Steph Curry