Thursday, June 25, 2015

Some NBA Rumors... The Off-Season is Finally Here!

Clayton -

Well Jeff, the Warriors wrapped things up on the season and tied things up into a bow. Now let draft and free agency speculation begin. We will be doing some more between now and the draft, but there are a few rumors and things that have popped up and want to know what your thoughts are about them.

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Joel Embiid is hurt again. The Sixers knew the risk, and you have to feel bad for the immensely talented kid, but do you think this throws a wrench into the Sixers plans now? Plus Dario Saric is rumored to be delaying his coming to the NBA for another year or two until he is no longer restricted to the rookie wage scale. The future is even more in question now for the Sixers. Thoughts?

Clayton -

First off, let me get this out of the way. Saric was going to keep playing in Europe for probably two years after being picked anyways.  He likely wants to get out of the restraints of the rookie wage scale, and who can blame him? For Philly, this was pretty much known. They are getting free development time right now from his play overseas and don't have to worry about him maybe getting screwed up from all the losing. Calm down people, this is not an issue, yet.

Before the news about Embiid’s foot injury not “healing properly,” I would have said the Sixers would be taking either Emmanuel Mudiay or De’Angelo Russell. Now this throws things for a loop. There has been more and more rumbling of the Sixers taking Kristaps Porzingis at 3 even before the news, so I would say just to go with it.

Porzingis just measure in at 7’1.25” without shoes and a 7’6” wingspan. So he is the tallest guy in the draft with the widest wingspan and is an incredibly fluid athlete who possesses what Philadelphia needs most, SHOOTING. At 230 pounds, he knows he has to gain more weight to be able to just deal with the physicality in the league nowadays, but he reportedly is making strides and not losing any of the other attributes that make him such an intriguing guy.

The fit next to Noel is actually pretty good as Noel has little range, and is an incredible defensive player. Porzingis is a decent help defender with obviously incredible size and length. They need a point guard, but they have 5 freaking 2nd round picks, so they could just use three of them on a 1 and hope one of them sticks.

Jeff -

The Sixers have plans? Hmmm… did someone tell their front office that? This franchise has seemingly made bad choice after bad choice for about 3 years now.

I have heard rumors that Embiid will be ready for game 1. I don’t see it happening and it might just be hopeful Sixer babble to think that is possible but who knows?

Like you, I think Porzingis is a good fit for Philly, but if the Sixers do go that route they are going to have to move somebody out of that front court at some point. Proz and Noel could be a very interesting pairing together and I would love to see how that would play out. However, if they do take Porzingis they will probably just trade him 27 games into his career for a 2025 1st round protected pick… it’s the Philly way. Hell they would trade the Fresh Prince if they had the rights to him.

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Nuggets appear they want to totally blow up to roster now with the hiring of Mike Malone. Ty Lawson is definitely on the block as his immaturity is hurting the culture. There are rumors they want to deal Lawson to the Kings for the 6th overall pick in the draft, which at first seemed fair enough, though this may have more implications than that due to salaries. Do you think that is a fair trade for both and who do you think the Nuggets may target? Could they even package the 6th and 7th picks to move up if they can accomplish this?
Clayton -

Lawson’s stock is incredibly low according to ESPN’s Ryen Russillo, as reportedly executives laughed at him when he asked if the Kings should trade the 6th pick for Lawson straight up. He still has value, but they are also looking to possibly get rid of Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried and others. I could see them moving these guys in smaller deals than they would like, but none to me would be considered a blockbuster.

To top it off, with rumors of DeMarcus Cousins on the block, that 6th pick may be earmarked for different assets, namely the Lakers getting the pick. We will see if George Karl has anything to say about that though.

Jeff -

I really like Lawson and think he can be a great piece on a contender, however the Nuggets are not a contender and don’t look to be one any time soon. If I am Denver i’m doing this thing the old fashioned way and shipping off every piece I can. No point in holding onto a guy you think could help in the near future, when success isn’t in your near future.

If I am Sactown I am not taking a Lawson for the #6 straight up. If they get rid of Boogie and Gay like they are rumored to be, then Lawson does them no more good than he would Denver. This is one of those scenarios where neither team gets much better or much worse in the immediate future.

Lance Stephenson was dealt to the Clippers. Good, bad or meh?
Clayton -

I apparently am one of the only guys that like this deal, as Stephenson had a terrible season only making his naysayers look even better. Part of this to me was a completely different system in Charlotte, he was injured to start the year, and Kemba Walker and Lance are a terrible fit.

The Clippers did great, but should have tried to make it a Spencer Hawes for Stephenson deal straight up as a trade of bad contracts. Putting Matt Barnes made little sense to me. Yes he is aging and is at times a nutcase, but he shot above average from deep and plays good defense. Not to mention when Blake and CP3 are looking soft, Barnes’ rough side makes them look less whiney. I do not think Barnes needed to be thrown in for financial issues, but then again, I'm not a cap guru, so he might have been.

What do you think Jeff? I know you were pretty high on this deal right?

Jeff -

It’s funny, I never liked Stephenson and thought he was pretty overrated but compared to Matt Barnes I think this is huge for the Clip Joint, I tweeted multiple times throughout the playoffs that the first thing the Clippers needed to do this offseason was address the Small Forward position. Now I know Lance is a Shooting Guard but I think he can help out at SF and give some valuable minutes there. (Editor’s note: Lance as a small ball 3 is highly intriguing to me as well.)

The Clippers still need to find a traditionally sized and skilled SF to really lock down that position but if I had to watch Matt Barnes in a Clippers uniform one more time I was going to hurl, and I am not even a Clippers fan!

LaMarcus Aldridge is a free agent this summer if he chooses to opt out, which is highly likely. The favorite has been the Spurs if he doesn’t re-sign in Portland. More and more reports are coming out that he could go to Dallas. Is that even a fit?
Clayton -

We will get a bit more into the Blazers in a few, but I think LaMarcus is leaving. He is 30, might feel the group is starting to get out of contention, and though many think this is petty, he is supposedly upset that co-star Damian Lillard is getting all of the adoration and commercials. Petty sure, but he is still the best guy on the team and it really isn’t close.

Now the best fit to me for LMA is San Antonio. He would be taking over for Tim Duncan who I think comes back for another year or two and will be joining the quiet but amazing young guy who most teams crave but fear him when they face him, Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi is not into the limelight like Lillard and would be a great pairing in my opinion. There would be pressure in replacing the great Duncan, but Aldridge would be up to the challenge, despite turning 30.

The Dallas rumor to me makes no sense. They need a rim protector like Tyson Chandler or DeAndre Jordan. Aldridge is a good defender, but he is not really in that mold to me. So he would have to be the 4 in Dallas, problem is that Dirk plays the 4. Unless Dirk comes off the bench, I do not see that happening. They could work at times together, but LMA has said he wants to play with a very good defender and well… Dirk is paper mache. It just doesn't make sense.

Jeff -

The Spurs are definitely the better fit but I would say the Mavs could be an intriguing fit depending on Dirk’s willingness to take a lesser role.

Obviously SAS has the coach, the Finals MVP in Leonard, and plenty of other pieces but Dallas is no slouch either. Chandler Parsons is a young solid piece and they have a few guys that can contribute. They would be much better off had they not made that Rondo trade (HAHA) but they are still a playoff contention team with what they have and would only get better with LA.

Like I previously said it really comes down to Dirk. Do they bring him off the bench? Do they play 1 of them at the 5 and tell Chandler to take a seat?

Like you previously mentioned they could shock the world and nab Aldridge and Jordan and have one of the best 4-5 combos in the league with plenty of productive years ahead of them but that is definitely a long shot.

Either way I think Aldridge would be wise to get out of Rip City while he can, that team seems to be crumbling around the feet of potential superstar Damian Lillard who can’t be happy with what the next 2 years look like for that roster.  

Clayton -

Late addition here, but while Jeff and I were talking with our buddy Joshua about Monta Ellis opting out of his deal, I said the Mavs should go after Patrick Beverley (former Parsons teammate), Danny Green and DeAndre Jordan. A few minutes after saying just that, it was rumored that the Mavs want Green to replace Ellis. It is awesome when you nail something like that. Sure it may not happen, but those three guys would be solid fits, if they can make it work under the cap.



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Jimmy Butler reportedly is now interested in shorter offer sheets to possibly leave Chicago sooner. With these reports, the destination appears to be the Lakers, though that may be agent posturing. Two questions on this one. Are the Bulls really stupid enough to let Butler leave? Secondly, am I the only one who thinks the Bulls could be in for a huge change this offseason in terms of the roster since Coach Thibs is gone?
Clayton -

First, Jimmy Butler is not leaving. Management sees that Butler is now their best player and have to pay him. He could sign the qualifying offer if he really wants to leave, but that rarely happens as I believe Greg Monroe is the only player to ever do it. Butler though did bet on himself and turned down a 4 year $44 million deal that he would have signed reportedly if it was $48 million. Chicago is kicking themselves now. Maybe he could bet on himself again and sign the QO and bolt next summer.

There may be a bi more noise out there that Butler will sign the QO, as I have seen a few Chicago and National writers say he will probably decline the Max. He probably should since he could make a lot more next summer.

The Roster on the other hand I think could be in massive flux. We could see rumors swirling of Pau Gasol, Ty Gibson and even Derrick Rose or Joakim Noah (one already popped up on Rose, but it was terrible and shouldn’t even really be mentioned after this).

With Tom Thibodeau out and Fred Hoiberg in, this could be a totally different team. I am not well versed on Hoiberg at the moment, but I do know at Iowa State he was known for bringing in a lot of junior college transfers. I believe he is generally known as a very good offensive coach, but beyond that I would only be guessing honestly. I liked the hiring, hated the firing and could see a roster overhaul this summer.

Jeff -

Would the Bulls be dumb to let Butler walk? Yes, yes they would. However, I don’t think Butler is a max contract guy… ya I know most people think he is, but I don’t.

I would pay Butler around $14-$16 per year, but the fact is if they have to give him max money to keep him they will.

I believe the Bulls are in for a major facelift here. I’ve heard rumors of Noah and Gibson both being shipped out this offseason. Plus I have a shaky feeling that D Rose might be in another uniform fairly soon.

The Bulls had a small window and it frankly seems to have shut, and hard.

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The Knicks have been wanting to trade back since they slipped in the draft according to reports. This is pretty stupid, but a deal just popped up that was intriguing. ESPN’s Chad Ford in his weekly chat mentioned the Knicks trading the 4th pick to the Phoenix Suns for Eric Bledsoe and the 13th pick. Take that with a grain of salt because Ford is sketchy (look up his past mocks where he made it out that he was 100% correct on all the picks), but that would be an absolute steal for the Knicks right? A possible All-Star who is only 25 and the 13th pick are two nice building blocks.
Clayton -

Now as I mentioned, this comes from Ford so beware. I honestly would not do this if I was the Suns. MAybe they are down on Bledsoe, but as a huge fan, that would be stupid. What would they honestly get with the 4th pick? Hezonja, Porzingis, Willie Cauley Stein (whose stock is slipping at the moment), Mudiay? I do not get it.

Now on the flip side, if the Knicks are offered this, they need to jump on it. Bledsoe is a great young player who may not fit the probably outdated triangle offense, but you build around a guy like that. at 13 they could take any number of players. WCS could fall that far now. Trey Lyles would be ok in that range and Phil is reported to love the guy. Myles Turner? Kelly Oubre? I do not know.

I think what they need to do first off is tell Carmelo he is now a 4 and work around that. Then you figure everything out. Melo is ok defensively against 4s, but is horrible against 3s. They have been said to be the favorites for Greg Monroe (that would be TERRIBLE defense with those two as your 4 and 5). If it unfolds that way, they are going to need serious backcourt defenders, probably the reason for the Bledsoe rumor.If they go back to 13, they could grab Kelly Oubre who improved on defense at Kansas under Bill Self. They would need a solid 2 (what happened to Shumpert? oh yeah nevermind), but they should be able to find someone.

Jeff -

If I am the Knicks I am definitely doing that deal. If they stay at 4 they could end up with a guy that will never be as good as Bledsoe. Here they get a proven young guard in Bledsoe plus that 13th pick which could be a solid piece during the rebuild.

The Knicks can’t get much worse than what they’ve been recently, so why not take a risk here and hope Bledsoe pans out in the Big Apple? If it works out you give Melo a strong guard to run the offense and help take some pressure off of him.

There should be some nice players available at 13 that won’t have a lot of pressure on them right away to produce.

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The Warriors and Cavs showed that small ball can win championships. Do you think the rest of the league (specifically the Pacers say they will be switching playing styles in favor of a faster pace), and fans are willing to see that you do not need a traditional style of play to win it all?
Clayton -

Ok fans now listen. Small ball is sweeping the league right now. That does not mean that traditional basketball is doomed. I personally prefer the pace and space game nowadays, but I know that a dominant low post guy is huge. For example, the Warriors made the Grizzlies look silly and the Cavs made the Bulls look bad. Both for different reasons, but they did prevail.

I think what you really need to do in today’s game is what Jalen Rose says, play position-less basketball. Have versatile guys. Guys with size but the speed, shooting, defensive abilities and agility too. You do not have to run out a Draymond Green at the 5, but you want to have lineups that can do that. The Warriors lineup of Curry at the 1, Klay - 2, Iguodala - 3, Barnes - 4 and Green - 5 is when Golden State really got things going. Now obviously that is easier said than done and everyone would love to have their own Draymond, but that is not likely.

We are even about to see a traditional team go small. The PAcers as mentioned above are going to be playing a healthy Paul George at the 4. A lot. What that means for David West or Roy Hibbert, I do not know, but they want to get up and down the court faster. They have been painfully slow the past few seasons and shifting PG to the 4 could change the team dynamics.

So what I am saying is that I think we will see teams start to play Mike D’Antoni Ball a lot more, but a traditional team will never die.

Jeff -

Everybody keeps saying the big man is on the way out and small ball is the future, yet everybody seems to want a big man.

Look at the top of the draft, top 2 picks will most likely be bigs. Lakers are desperately trying to trade for Cousins, a big man. Aldridge, DJ, and Love are all hot commodities.

The big man may not be as deep as it once was, but it is still a huge part of the game today and I don’t see (or want to see) the big man fade away and have 5 positionless players as Jalen Rose once suggested.

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Are the Portland Trailblazers in trouble? LaMarcus Aldridge, Wes Matthews, Aaron Afflalo and Robin Lopez are all reportedly going to be opting out of their contracts. There is are real possibilities that all of them could be leaving. Could we be seeing the West’s fourth playoff seed dropping out of the discussion altogether?
Clayton -

We minorly touched on this before but now we are about to take this a bit deeper. Franchise player LaMarcus Aldridge has been saying all the right things for like 18 months now, but I think he leaves. Portland may have maxed out their play last year, and LMA seems to be getting the backseat to Lillard now. He is clearly a max guy.

Wes Matthews did get hurt at the end of the year, tearing his Achilles, but now only 3 months after surgery, he is already back on the court. I am sure it is only minor drills and shooting, but that is huge. Matthews says he expects to be back by the beginning of the season and wants $15 million a year. Before the injury I would think that is fine, but after the injury I would have a hard time committing that much money to him. I could see him signing a 2 year deal for like $10 million a year with an opt out after the first year in order for him to collect his money. He is a great player, but I think he is bolting Portland as well.

Arron Afflalo was Portland’s big deadline piece, but he played terribly and is too opting out of his $7.5 million option. This was expected. I feel Portland needs to re-sign him, especially if Wes is about to leave.

Robin Lopez is not a great player, but he is a very solid role player with above average defense. He will likely get a pay bump too.

Portland then is without 4 of their top 6 or 7 players. They would have some solid pieces in Lillard, Meyers Leonard, Nicolas Batum (also reportedly on the trading block), and C.J. McCollum as their top 4 guys if all of the ones above leave. That may not even get you to the playoffs. They need to extend LMA, and one of Afflalo or Wes, but I do not know if that happens.

Jeff you brought up this question to me, so what do you see happening? Are the Blazers in deep trouble?

Jeff -

If things go south for Portland and they lose 3 or 4 of those guys then yes, we could see Rip City fall out of the playoffs. The west is too deep and Lillard won’t be able to get them there on his own.

If Aldridge stays I think they still have a chance at the 8th seed. If he leaves though and they don’t replace him with Kevin Love it doesn’t matter who they re-sign, it won’t be enough. (Editor’s Note: reportedly LMA has told the Blazers he is leaving, but that is yet to be seen.)

I see Matthews staying, but not sure how effective he will be for the better part of the season.  Like I said earlier their success next season really hinges on LA or Love being in Portland next year.

What exactly are the Miami Heat doing? They seem to be low balling the two key guys on their roster (that are free agents) that are key to their success in the next few years, Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic. Are they trying to wipe the cap sheet clean after giving Chris Bosh another mega-deal last summer? Or are they just trying to play hardball with two guys they need?
Clayton -

I think at Pat Riley has lost his damn mind. I totally understand low balling Wade… again, but Dragic? Wade is aging, breaking down more frequently and is not as effective. He has his spurts, but he really should pull a Manu Ginobili and be an insane bench guy. I want to credit that to Zach Lowe or Bill Simmons on the Bill Don’t Lie Podcast for saying that (R.I.P. Bill Simmons’ ESPN Career), but I am not 100% positive on who it was. Honestly, it would make perfect sense. One problem. Wade probably would not agree. I do not see Wade leaving, but who knows.

Goran on the other hand is just stupid. Low balling your prized trade deadline acquisition is ridiculous. The whole point of trading 2 first round picks, with one being unprotected in 2021 (WHAT?!?! That was asinine), was so you would have the extra year and money to offer to Dragic.

Now it is Miami and Florida does not have state taxes, so there are big benefits to even taking a diminished deal, but I could see Dragic leaving just on principle of it. Now in a normal scenario is Dragic a max player? In my opinion no, but with the cap about to explode, he is. Jeff may agree, but when a 30% max will be like 22% (a 25% becomes 17% so I am basing it off of that) of the cap in 2 years, I think it is more than fair value.

I am not a huge fan of Dragic, but they gave up two big assets, even making one unprotected, just to get him. They have to pay him.

Jeff -

Clayton you know my stance on Dragic, he is not worth max money and I wouldn’t pay him more than $12 mill per year at the most, and that’s being generous for me. I think he is more of a $10 mill player.

The Heat did give up a lot to acquire him so they will look bad if they let him walk, but they will also look bad if they overpay him.

Now with Wade I think they would be wise to let him walk. In order to keep him they would have to overpay for what he will give them at this point in his career. I think Miami should blow things up and let everybody they can leave Miami.

Bosh’s huge contract hurts the rebuild, but they shouldn’t make it worse by overpaying two more guys, Just cut your losses and pray for a quick turnaround.

Clayton -

I think we disagree entirely on the values of deals. The way you are thinking is based off of the old cap. That is about to explode, so we have to change our thinking. Now if the Cap were to stay where it is for the foreseeable future, I would agree, Dragic is maybe a $12-14 million a year guy, but that is not the situation any longer.

Bill Simmons came up with the term Market Max for these next few years. What Dragic or anyone else gets paid this summer, will be substantially less comparatively than it will be. I think that we have to, as fans, realize this. If the available money increases, salaries increase. Simple as that.

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It is draft time and of course rumors are swirling. On top of the deals mentioned above, the newest rumor is DeMarcus Cousins and the 6th pick going to the Lakers, while the Orlando Magic get the 2nd pick (to take Jahlil Okafor) and likely more assets and Sacramento receive the 5th pick, Nikola Vucevic and probably some picks and sweeteners (Julius Randle or Jordan Clarkson?, hopefully only 1 of them) in there somewhere. Is this trade fair for all parties? Though it is unlikely, would you pull the trigger and make it happen?

Clayton -

This has been a minor rumor ever since the Kings fired Mike Malone and hired George Karl. They are not a great fit, but they could work.

Then ESPN’s Marc Stein dropped a bomb at like 2p.m. (6/22/2015) that the Lakers are pushing hard for Cousins. At first I was stand offish, but looking at the deal above, I would do it. After thinking about it, if we are planning on taking Jahlil Okafor (Cousins is his ceiling as a comp) this is golden. You lose a bit of cap this year, but it is about to skyrocket so it doesn't really matter in a year or two. I have seen this panic of losing cap space online already and Lakers fans are ridiculous.

I do not know it it comes together but it would be solid for everyone in my opinion. Cousins has not seemed happy in Sacramento for 2 years and appeared furious with the Mike Malone firing while he was dealing with Mononucleosis. Lakers love stars and big men. He is not only both, but still young at only 24.

Sacramento improves their draft pick by one, likely gets some more assets on top of Vucevic.

Orlando takes the prized Okafor. Jeff may try to say it doesn’t make sense for Orlando but every draft and NBA guy would disagree.

Then around 10 p.m. Sacramento Kings owner Vivek Ranadive told USA TOday they are not trading Cousins. Minor blow, but he says he will defer to Vlade Divac.

Then less than an hour later Yahoo's’ Adrian Wojnarowski drops one of his patented (well it should be at least) WOJ bombs and says that Karl is pushing to trade Cousins. It is complete madness. This after Woj earlier in the day posted how D’Angelo Russell is pushing the Lakers to take him at 2. That could be unlikely now, and Lakers fans should all be fine with that.

If the Lakers got 6 on top of Boogie, that leaves Mudiay (a personal favorite) still potentially available as well as a few others. I would be assuming that the Kings would probably take Porzingis, Hezonja or WCS.

Another interesting option was brought up by Darius Soriano at @forumbluegold, Lakers get Boogie and 6, Sacramento gets Lawson and Faried (Karl favorites), and Denver gets #2 and filler. Another one by him is Denver gets #2 and #34, Sacramento gets Lawson, Faried, Clarkson and #27, and LA gets Boogie and #6.

Now do I think any of this happens? Likely not, but it could. I would be happy with either trade scenario, especially if the Lakers could snag Mudiay at 6, especially if we had to ship out Clarkson. Even if we switched Randle for Clarkson, I would take Mudiay. Are you getting the point that I want Mudiay, who I would even be ballsy enough to take at 2.

I would say more, but I want to see what Jeff has to say. Twitter Basketball is going crazy right now! Even the disappeared Bill Simmons is making Boogie references on twitter tonight!

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Jeff -

This trade is an interesting one. The Kings seem determined to get rid of their best player and possibly the best Center in the game. Karl has a specific style and Boogie just doesn’t fit his style. Karl needs to realize it’s the players not the system that wins (unless you are Pop or Jackson).

If the Lakers get Boogie I will be very, very, very unhappy. I hate them with every Green bone in my body.

Now getting Vucevic back would be a nice consolation prize but isn’t nearly an equal value player. The 5th pick from Orlando could help fill out the roster, but Vuc and whoever they take at 5 still isn’t better than Cousins.

Orlando gets potentially Okafor but loses Vucevic in the process. Depending on what other pieces they get, I don’t see them being much better or much worse after this trade. They basically just change the outlook of their roster.

The Lakers getting Cousins still doesn’t make them a playoff team but it helps for the future. Cousins and Randle (if he isn’t part of the trade) is a nice frontcourt to build around. All they need is to wait until Kobe retires and Nick Young runs off to Australia with Iggy and they can really start the rebuild.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter at @Jeffkay1989
You can follow Clayton on Twitter at @19Yanks23