Jeff- Round 2 is finally here. The first round played out as expected for the most part. Other than the flop by the Raptor,s everything else wasn't too out of the ordinary. With that being said, let’s jump right into our 2nd round predictions.
Eastern Conference
Hawks (1) vs Wizards (5)
If you read our Round 1 prediction article you know that I am not sold on Atlanta at all. I claimed they were a fluke and the only reason I had them making it out of the first round was more about how bad Brooklyn is, and than how good Atlanta is.
They did nothing in round 1 to make me change my mind either. There was no reason THAT THE Brooklyn Nets team should’ve been able to push a #1 seed to 6 games. That series gave me even more of a reason to doubt the Hawks.
Meanwhile, the Wizards completely dismantled the Raptors. I predicted the Wiz to take the series but I definitely didn’t have them doing it in such impressive fashion. Paul Pierce had his typical “that's why they brought me here” moments and just about every key player on their team showed up at some point in the series.
The Hawks did win the season series 3-1, but I never denied the Hawks were a good regular season team. The playoffs are a different beast, and I think their lack of a “main guy” is what ultimately gets them eliminated.
I think this will be a physical series with the Wizards showing their muscle inside and out. Wall should be able to take advantage of Teague while Beal and Pierce should be able to pick and choose their spots.
In the end I think the Wizards shock the world (but not me).
Result: Wizards in 7
Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (3)
The Cavs were my preseason pick to come out of the East and while the season has had it’s ups and downs they seemed poised to steamroll through the competition. They made quick work of the Celtics, sweeping them in 4 games. Unfortunately, game 4 saw Kevin Love suffer a shoulder injury that would late reveal that he would miss at least 4 months while possible retaliation by JR Smith to the side of Jae Crowder’s face cost him the first 2 games of this series.
On the other side, the Bulls let the Bucks win about 2 more games than they should have. The Bulls seemed to fall asleep at the wheel halfway through the series that had fans wondering if this team had gotten lazy. Well a dominating 54 point win in game 6 to close out the series has the Bulls fans back in championship mode.
The Cavs won the season series 3-1, but are shorthanded for this series. The question becomes, how much will they miss Kevin Love?
To me Kevin Love is a huge piece of the Cavs offense and is highly underrated similar to Chris Bosh’s role during the Heat’s 4 year stretch. The Cavs will definitely miss the presence of Love, but enough to cost them the series?
The battle between Kyrie and Rose is going to be must see TV. Lebron will be Lebron as always. The real difference makers in this series should be Jimmy Butler and Tristan Thompson. The way these two play could win or lose the series for their respective teams.
If Love and Smith were still available for the full series I would have the Cavs winning convincingly, however with Love out and Smith missing 2 games the series will be much tougher for them.
Result: Cavs in 6
Western Conference
Warriors (1) vs Grizzlies (5)
This will be a fun series to watch. You have the high scoring 3 point assassins in the Warriors vs the tough nosed defensive minded team who play in an arena known as “The Grindhouse”.
The Warriors will be getting David Lee back in this series which will be huge against the Memphis bigs. Meanwhile, Mike Conley is predicted to miss the first 2 games of the series. This is the biggest factor of the series to me, as the Warriors best player, Steph Curry, will absolutely destroy Nick Calathes with Conley out.
In round 1 the Warriors made quick work of the Pelicans as expected, while the Grizzlies took advantage of a shorthanded Blazers for a disappointingly quick series.
The Grizzlies bigs have a clear advantage in the series, while the Warriors guards take the edge. The battle up for grabs looks to be Jeff Green vs Barnes/Iguodala. If Jeff Green can be the determined scoring machine that he shows flashes of from time to time this series will be very interesting. If he is the laid back, passive guy that he frustratingly shows far too often, it could be over quick.
The Warriors won the season series 2-1 with the loss coming in December. Each win saw either Curry or Klay go absolutely nuts and I expect that to be the theme again in this series.
The Grizzlies definitely have a chance to win this series, but they would need to play the perfect series, which will be a tough task if Conley can’t contribute like normal.
Result: Warriors in 6
Rockets (2) vs Clippers (3)
In round 1 many people had the Mavericks as the popular upset pick over the Rockets *cough Clayton cough*. While I had the Rockets advancing, I definitely didn't think they would do it in such convincing fashion.
Dwight Howard was an absolute beast in the series, punishing Tyson Chandler on the boards en route to a series average of 18.3 points, 15.2 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks per game. Meanwhile,James Harden put up 28.4 points and 7.8 assists per game.
The Rockets seem locked in at this point and look like a real threat to make it to the conference finals.
On the other side you have the Clippers, who just survived the toughest 1st round series since Celtics-Bulls in 2009. Not only did they play 2 more games than the Rockets, they also played much tougher games than the Rockets.
On top of that CP3 is badly hobbled with a left hamstring strain. Paul is the key to this series, and sadly we will not see the best of him. Given the fact that the Clippers really are only 6 deep, 7 if I am being generous, makes this injury that much more impactful.
At the start of the playoffs I had my “Most likely to win the West” in order as Warriors, Clippers, Rockets. Sadly, with this Paul injury it’s looking more and more like the Rockets may take this one.
This season series was an even 2-2, although Dwight Howard missed all 4 games of the series, while Blake Griffin missed 2 of them. So this really is a different series for more reasons than “it’s the playoffs”
I was talking with Clayton and the real question here is who will guard James Harden? If Paul was healthy I would have to believe he would get the task, but with him out and not healthy for the other games the work will have to be given to someone else… but who? It damn sure won’t be JJ Redick, I love JJ but he is not the guy you want guarding James Freaking Harden. It won’t be whoever starts for Paul, either Rivers or Crawford. The only true option I see is putting Matt Barnes on Harden and switching Redick over to Ariza.
If they do put Barnes on Harden I think the length of Barnes could slow Harden down slightly, not much but slightly.
The battle of DeAndre vs Dwight will be interesting to watch. Who will grab all those Matt Barnes missed 3 point shots? Eh, there will be plenty to go around.
I expect Blake to go absolutely nuts in this series, I really don’t see Terrence Jones being able to slow him down. So the question becomes who will be bigger Harden or Blake? It might sound stupid given Harden’s scoring prowess, but let’s not forget when Blake is locked in he can go for 35 and 15 and 10.
Result: If CP3 plays 6 games- Clippers in 7
If CP3 plays 5 games or less- Rockets in 6
Clayton- Did I mention I am not very good at predicting series? Jeff went 8-0 while I went 6-2. Not awful, but certainly not good.
Eastern Conference
Hawks (1) vs Wizards (5)
Atlanta is just a shell of itself at this point in the season. While most teams look to be getting healthy come time for the playoffs, the Hawks were hit by the injury bug, not to mention police issues up in New York.
The team ball worked amazing for the Hawks, up until they had three guys go down in injury. Al Horford’s pinkie is so screwed up that he hardly uses the hand. Paul Millsap’s shoulder looks so damaged that it appears he has changed his shooting stroke. Thabo Sefolosha was not really a factor until the Hawks got the chance to face the Cavs, were Thabo is a long enough defender to piss off LeBron, plus he can give up his 6 fouls to just agitate James. Health is a factor, and I just don’t think they have enough of that in order to advance.
The Wizards on the other hand have made Randy Wittman look like a damn genius. After playing roughly 120 minutes of a lineup of Wall, Beal, Porter, The Truth and either Nene or Gortat during the regular season, that was their bread and butter for the series. Of course Wittman acted like he had hide the lineup from everyone, though everyone was saying he should have been using it in the first place, but it sure worked.
A key to this series for Washington is Porter. After looking like a fringe rotation piece the past two years (not all his fault, injury and of course… Wittman. the lack of playing time hurt his development), Porter looks like the guy they were hoping for when they drafted him third overall pick in 2013. He was everywhere. Grabbing boards, making key shots and defending like he was supposed to since he was a rookie.
Oh yeah, and Paul Pierce will likely have a big game or two.
Result: Wizards in 7
Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (3)
Oh boy Derrick Rose looks healthy! Oh wait, maybe he isn’t. The Golden boy has returned! Or not...
Game 1 - 9-16 FG, 3-7 3PT, 23 PTS, 7 ASS, 0 REB
Game 2 - 4-14 FG, 2-6 3PT, 16 PTS, 9 ASS, 7 REB
Game 3 - 12-23 FG, 5-9 3PT, 34 PTS, 8 ASS, 5 REB
Game 4 - 5-13 FG, 2-4 3PT, 14 PTS, 6 ASS, 5 REB
Game 5 - 5-20 FG, 0-7 3PT, 13 PTS, 2 ASS, 4 REB
Game 6 - 6-14 FG, 3-7 3PT, 15 PTS, 7 ASS, 5 REB
FG - 41%, 3PT - 37.5%
Can we just admit he is not longer the big dog on this team and to tell Tom Thibodeau that Jimmy Butler is your best guy and should be getting the last shot? I don’t care about the money, on the floor, Butler is the guy. Rose may have shot decently from deep, but his overall efficiency was atrocious, not to mention he sucks on defense, especially lapsing in focus and letting JERRYD BAYLESS make a shot at the rim to win the game.
Sure the Cavs are hurting due to the injury to Kevin Love and suspension to J.R, Smith, but Kyrie is going to torch Rose. Sure Rose’s numbers will go up a bit because Michael Carter-Williams length was giving him fits, but Kyrie has actually improved.
The key to shutting Chicago down is actually shutting Jimmy Butler down. They already have Joakim Noah hobbled and Mirotic nursing a leg injury. Plus Aaron Brooks has disappeared in the playoffs.
The Cavs I heard on a recent podcast should run a lineup of Kyrie, Shumpert, Smith when he returns from suspension, LeBron at the 4, and a rotation of Mozgov and Thompson. They would be slightly undersized, but Chicago has been running Mirotic at the 3, effective really only when he is knocking down threes and giving the Bulls the ability to play two other bigs. Rose, Butler, Mirotic, Gasol and Noah would not be able to keep up with the onslaught brought on by the Cavs.
I am likely being pessimistic of the Bulls, but Rose played poorly unless he got multiple days rest, and Thibodeau has run Jimmy Butler and Co. into the ground
Results: Cavs in 5
Western Conference
Warriors (1) vs Grizzlies (5)
If Mike Conley were ok I would have a little more optimism for the Grizzlies. Due to the facial fractures and the foot issues he was having before he got the elbow to the face, I think this series will be over by the time Conley is back and ready.
Jeff says Conley has been reported to be back in game 3, but by then the Warriors will already lead 2-0 in the series. Tony Allen may be able to slow down one of the splash brothers down, but not both. Calathes is a really good back up guard, but not a starter, he will be crushed by the one Allen is not defending. Beno Udrih could be back, but that really does not matter,
The most closely matched up area is the front court in my opinion. Most people would give the edge to Memphis, but I will go with Golden State. Bogut and Gasol cancel each other out honestly, but Zach Randolph vs. Draymond Green will piss off Z-Bo. I don’t see him wanting to run around the court defending him, and Draymond is elite defensively, so Randolph will get some, but I doubt he has any really big games.
I expect Curry and/or Thompson to go off for one or two games of 40+ points.
Results: Warriors in 6
Rockets (2) vs Clippers (3)
I know, I know, picking Dallas over Houston was a risk, but I was counting on Parsons knee not being torn up, Rondo playing actually decent and not like utter garbage… I smell a Rondo rant coming in a moment.... and Dirk not looking 80. Apparently it was too much to ask, but I was not alone, as Jalen Rose picked the upset as well on Grantland TV.
Now to Rondo, my favorite punching bag. I do not know how anyone can possibly back this guy up now. His maturity level is so far down the toilet I think it is at the sewage treatment plant. His wanting to play his way actually hurt the team.
In Game 1 Rondo shot a respectable 7-16 for 15 points and had 5 assists, but had no steals, no rebounds and had a +/- rating of -21. That is not good.
In Game 2, he was 2-4 for 4 points (of course it was because he sucks at 3’s and can’t get to the line where he shot worse than freaking DeAndre Jordan.) with 4 fouls in 10 minutes with a +/- of -11. He was benched only a minute or two into the second half after 2 fouls and a tech.
After the game? Rondo suffered a “back injury” that ESPN’s Tim MacMahon and others reported he received no treatment, but went into the treatment room for 30 seconds in normal street clothes, to avoid reporters as they are not allowed in there and left without speaking to the media.
Some back injury huh? NBA players go in for treatment for quite a while and never in street clothes.
The following day it was announced he was done for the playoffs with coach Rick Carlisle saying that was his last time in a Mavs jersey. A few days followed and it was announced that Rondo and the Mavs had mutually parted ways and Rondo would not even receive his playoff share. Nothing like a team scorned. What a mess, and I wouldn’t sign him. Even the veterans minimum is too much for that outdated pariah at this point.
Sorry back to the playoffs, the Rockets didn't really seem to miss a beat, losing only once. Harden did his thing and Dwight Howard looked like a guy who is returning to good health. The role players were excellent and GM Daryl Morey is already looking for another superstar.
For the Clippers, it is extremely tricky. Glen Davis returned from an ankle injury suffered in game 6 to play sufficiently enough for his 11 minutes. He will be key to beating the Rockets
Ha! Got you didn’t I? Actually the real key here is the hamstring strain Chris Paul just suffered in the first half of Game 7 against the Spurs. That is generally not a quick recovering injury. If he looks like he is playing on one leg again like the second half of Game 7, this will be a quick series, no matter how much CP3 wants this. A point guard with no wheels is going to hurt, just ask the Nets and Deron Williams.
Another interesting factor is the massive amount of minutes Doc Rivers plays his starters. After a long season, and a crazy series against the Spurs, the minutes will catch up.
Results if CP3 is healthy : Rockets in 6
Results if CP3 is diminished : Rockets in 5
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