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Clayton
It has been a long couple of days for Lakers fans hoping to sign a player or two, but sadly, it has brought us nothing, until now.
Problem is, Lakers management was being ridiculed for wrong reasons.
It was being blown up that the Lakers are inept, due to not being able to nail down guys that they only had a pipe dream of signing anyways. Guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, and even guys like Tobias Harris (who may or may not have received some interest from the Lakers, and was maxed out by the team who held his restricted free agent rights), were likely never coming to the Lakers.
Fans (and hopefully the front office) may be finally realizing that the Lakers were in really no position to sign the stars. The roster is not making it to the playoffs (and get that crap out of here that they would have if they had taken Jahlil Okafor, because that is idiocy), and mainly loaded with incredibly young talent.
By the time Russell and Co. are ready to start competing (in about 3 or 4 years), Aldridge (for example as he seems to have been the main target) would be around 34.
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Sure, next offseason brings hope in the form of another loaded free agent class, but that is just stupid to depend on. So why would LMA throw away years of his probably already slipping prime and of title contention elsewhere (the Spurs are probably his destination), to play with an aging Kobe, young kids who are years away and hoping to sign free agents in a year or two?
It just does not make sense.
So what the real issue here is not that they struck out on the stars. The real issue here has been that the Lakers struck out on all of the great role players, while they held out futile hope for guys they really only got meetings with, because of the name brand. They had to have known they weren’t really in contention, or they were too ambitious.
Now don’t get me wrong. If a superstar gives you a meeting, you take it. Maybe you get lucky. But if that meeting goes sour or if you think that it is unlikely, you start contacting other players. Immediately
The Lakers had 2 major holes, the small forward (the 3), and at center (the 5).
Here are some guys the Lakers lost out on while waiting for LaMarcus to make a decision, or even missing out on DeAndre Jordan:
3 - DeMarre Carroll, Corey Brewer, Danny Green (more of a two, but has the height, length, shooting and the defense to play the 3), Wes Matthews, and Al Farouq Aminu (overpaid by the Blazers)
5 - Robin Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Ed Davis (maybe a 4), Brandan Wright, and Omer Asik (bad last year but still overpaid)
Now some of them may not have even been interested in playing for LA (yes some my not want to actually play for LA), or maybe the LAkers did not like them either, but there were options.
All of the very good free agent options are gone, with the Lakers left out in the cold, still holding out pathetic hope of landing the star they’ve never really had a chance at.
What the Lakers need to realize themselves (along with fans), is that they cannot take the short cut. Striking deals with superstar free agents is not their thing. The last free agent signing that landed a superstar was Shaq in 1996. So… 19 years… Tell me again that the Lakers sign megastars?
Nope.
Want to know the beauty of that signing in the first place? Shaq joined a Lakers team that had won 53 games the previous season. Know how many games the Lakers won last year? A franchise worst 21 games. That ain’t attracting anyone, not even all the cap space they have.
So again like the last Lakers free agency piece, what is next? Options are few and far between in regards to free agency, guys to possibly take an extreme risk on and choices seem to be narrowed down a bit in the trades department.
With how the Lakers are now, you ideally would pray that Robert Upshaw proves his worth in summer league and seizes the spot, as he has potentially Top 10 talent, but the red flags mean he should probably be forced to show he has matured. It may be best for Upshaw to “chase a carrot” for sometime and learn on the bench to start the season or even the D-League.
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Well, then after so much worry and criticism, the Lakers made a move that makes so much sense and brings the best player to them. The Lakers just took on Roy Hibbert in a salary dump.
Hibbert, may have actually been the best fit for the Lakers other than maybe DeAndre Jordan, and they got him for cheaper, less years, and essentially no risk.
Hibbert does have his issues, such as he is not offensively dominant (or that awfully memorable 0 points and 0 rebounds game against Joel Anthony), but he is not an absolute zero on that end of the floor. Even if George Hill set him up perfectly, he still is not the greatest at finishing at the rim, despite his size.
Where Hibbert excels at is on defense. According to nba.com and their defensive rating, Hibbert posted a 101.1. At first glance, that number is far from elite, but that does not tell the whole story.
What has to be factored in was the team that surrounded Hibbert last year. Luis Scola, Rodney Stuckey, CJ Watson, and Chris Copeland are not the best defenders in the world. David West is ok, but with Paul George out the majority of the year and George Hill out for nearly half, the defense around Hibbert was not good.
With Hill and George out, the Pacers, despite the multitude of bad defenders, still ranked 8th in defensive efficiency.
What do the Lakers need most at the 5 this year? Defense. A very good rim protector to help clean up the mess created by all of his young teammates while they learn. According to shotanalytics.com, Roy Hibbert held opposing teams to an elite, 44% at the rim, and nothing above even 40% in the 8 to 12 foot range. To put that in perspective, only two players in the NBA last year were better at protecting the rim, defensive stalwart Andrew Bogut and the French sensation, Rudy “Stifle Tower” Gobert.
Yeah that is impressive.
Another positive to adding Hibbert? He would be an amazing on the court mentor for Robert Upshaw. Hibbert only has one year left on his deal and it is not for sure that he will want to return, or that LA will want him after the season.
Upshaw is not under contract yet (only an invite), but after numerous interviews, he appears to be very happy to be with the Lakers summer league team and wants to stay with them. He probably would give the Lakers the first chance to match a contract offered to him by another team, or they can sign him to a multi year, unguaranteed deal. Learning from the bench or playing in the D-League for a year would be great for him.
The deal in acquiring Hibbert is not yet completed, as there is talk about making it into a 3 team sign and trade situation for the Dallas Mavericks and Indian Pacers. The deal is not finalized, but from what I am gathering it could look a little something like this:
Indiana gets: Monta Ellis (4 years and $44 million), and either Raymond Felton and/or Nick Young, rights to Ater Majok (from LA), and probably a heavily protected second round pick in the future.
Dallas gets: Jeremy Lin (deal not yet finalized, but probably in the neighborhood of 3 years and $15 million, but depends mostly on how much they can absorb due to their cap situation), more future assets(?), and Nick Young (?).
Los Angeles gets: Roy Hibbert, Justin Anderson and possibly Raymond Felton (as a salary dump, but likely to be).
Now I am not great with the cap, so Felton’s inclusion and other numbers may not be off some.
For Indiana, this trade gets rid of Hibbert and his big salary (over $13.6 million), as they seem to have soured on each other, and the Pacers want to get faster. The Ellis signing only points more to Paul George running as a playmaking 4, like the Pacers have been discussing. They may need to be taking either Felton or Young back to sweeten the deal for either Dallas or LA.
Dallas gets a solid 1, who has been much maligned since his Linsanity time in New York. He is not the best PG in the league, but he does some things that high quality backups can do. Pass, penetrate and provide some spacing. He is not great at any of it, but with Rick Carlisle getting his hands on him, he could be a valuable player. With signing DeAndre Jordan and Wes Matthews, the Mavericks do not have to cap room to give Lin adequate salary demands, thus the inclusion of Anderson (but get to that in a minute).
Taking Nick Young may not make sense, but the Pacers may not want not absorb Felton, and it appears that the Nick Young is out of town. Shipping Young to Dallas, would provide some stability while Parsons and Matthews recover from possibly severe injuries. So why include Anderson again? I am getting to that.
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Making this deal for LA makes sense in acquiring Hibbert, but the other two teams need to shuffle salaries a bit. The Lakers have no need to help out either team. Sure they took Hibbert, but he fits well with the Lakers.
So why further help with Lin getting to Dallas and helping Dallas send Ellis to Indiana? Well first off, they may be able to get rid of Young. His deal is not terrible, but I have never been a huge fan. Good offense, but he is pathetic on defense. Plus, his role is now in question due to another acquisition that will be discussed in another minute. What the deal really could get the Lakers is the real prize, Justin Anderson.
Anderson is an athletic freak with incredible leaping ability and an insane wingspan, who would fill a big hole at the 3. He shot well in his final year at Virginia, but his mechanics were again off at the combine, much how they were in his first two years at Virginia. That may be due to injuries he suffered this past season. If he can revert back to that form, it would be huge as he shot 45% from deep before his wrist injury.
The Lakers did draft Anthony Brown, but Anderson is slightly younger and flat out better. I would probably try to keep Brown as he was a second round pick and has no guarantee at a contract. Keeping Brown would form a very good rotation at the 3, not to mention longer 4s in smaller lineups.
So the Lakers could demand that Anderson be included in the deal, to sweeten it for them. This would hurt for the Mavs, but getting rid of the cap hold on Anderson would free up more money to secure Lin.
Now before anyone starts going crazy (as I have a bit already, as I want Simba badly), this is speculation, and the framework may fall through. The entire deal can not be agreed upon until the 9th of July anyways due to the memorandum, so maybe that is why it is tight lipped at the moment. We will see. At minimum, the Lakers are getting Hibbert in just a salary dump, the rest would just be gravy.
Do not forget, Robert Sacre and Ryan Kelly have been rumored to be in the deal as well. This would move salary in Kelly (plus his stagnation), and possibly give Upshaw Sacre’s spot. With Sacre gone, Tarik Black would be the only back up big, so Upshaw deep on the bench would be a solid move to learn.
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After all of this, the Lakers also went out and signed Lou Williams as their bench scorer. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year, is clearly and offensive spark plug. Problem is, Williams signed for three years and $21 million. This only hints that Nick Young is included somehow in the deal mentioned above. With Young on the roster, it appears that Lou would not be able to get this contract.
Lou is a fan favorite it seems among the league, and is very much a valuable bench scorer. He only seems to be getting better after his ACL tear a couple years ago, and winning the award only adds to this.
Honestly, I am not a huge fan of the deal. Lou is essentially a 6’1” shooting guard, who finishes poorly at the rim. His salary of $7 million will only be roughly 7% of the cap next year, so it really is not all that bad. he is a very good shooter, and it much more consistent than Young. The best part of it, he can help teach the young guns, but also that it would get rid of the headache known as Nick Young.
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On top of the trade for Hibbert and Williams, the Lakers added veteran rotation big (and a former liked player by me), Brandon Bass to the mix. He will provide good leadership and mentorship for the young guys on their way up. The years and dollars are not yet known on Bass, but it cannot be too long or expensive.
Really the only downfall of bringing Bass (other than Jeff having to officially hate him now), is that he could steal minutes away from the young guys. Inept Byron Scott is an idiot and probably give Bass the majority of the minutes.
Are the Lakers going to be world beaters, or even playoff contenders? No, but what they are doing is making solid moves after having a disappointing start to the free agency period. The roster seems to be shaping up nicely, maybe even forming an identity, while even possibly be making another solid addition in the young asset department (by adding Justin Anderson).
There will be ups and downs to the year, but it will be very exciting to see how the team grows. Do not count on making the playoffs, but do expect to be entertained and get excited for the future of the Lakers.
Only a couple months ago we were saying the Lakers could have the worst future outlook in the entire league. A few days ago we were saying the Lakers would be screwed for years. Now, we added very good veterans, have major young building blocks already on the roster, possibly adding another, and have a true wildcard in the form of an immensely talented big man who went undrafted. Maybe the front office is not so bad after all.
To follow Clayton go to @19Yanks23 on Twitter